India Could Continue to Increase Apple Imports, Driven by Increased Consumption and Limited Domestic Production

Published 2023년 4월 28일

Despite abundant apple harvests in India, which totaled over 2.35M MT in MY 2022/23, imports will continue to outperform exports in the upcoming period, especially from Iran and Turkiye. One of the factors that contributed, besides competitive pricing, to Iran's and Turkey's growth was the disadvantage faced by the US since 2018 when India stopped importing apples in response to the Trump administration's steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from India. Apple production in India is also constrained by insufficient cold chain infrastructure and rising input costs, making domestic farmers less competitive than their counterparts in Iran and Türkiye.

India, soon to be the world’s most populous country, produced 2.35M MT of fresh apples in MY 2022/23, a volume similar to the previous year. Favorable weather during fruit setting and well-spread rain during the monsoon in 2022 contributed to satisfying yield and quality. The most popular varieties grown in India are Red Delicious, Royal Delicious, and Rich Red, while the majority of orchards are in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, with over 70% of the total acreage. Apple imports will remain significant for Indian consumption as acreage does not rise and demand grows. Despite strong apple harvests in India, there has been no considerable increase in the volume of Indian apples due to area limitations.

Top 5 Supplying Countries of Fresh Apple to India

Source: Tridge and TradeMap *the estimate for 2022 is based on the data from Q1 and other sources

Turkiye and Iran have been hugely successful in the Indian market, increasing their market share since FY 2019 constantly. Imports of apples from Iran increased by 168.07% YoY comparing the first quarter of 2023 to 2022. Turkiye growth was even more substantial with 224.28% YoY over the same period. The main reason for Türkiye and Iran's domination in the market is their competitive pricing of fresh apples In MY 2021/22, the average import price of fresh apples was USD 830/MT from Turkiye and USD 503/MT from Iran, well below the average price of USD 1,158/MT from the US. Along with cutthroat prices, Turkish traders have also gained a solid position in the market due to improved quality in 2023. Another point that contributed to the expansion of Iran and Turkiye’s market share, was the disadvantage faced by the US since 2018 when India ceased buying apples in response to the Trump administration's hefty tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from India. India has also implemented an obligatory Non-GMO compliance regulation for imported apples since March 2021, temporarily hindering trade with the US. Since 2019, Inda has imposed a retaliatory tariff of 20% on US apples.

Apple production in India has certain limitations due to inadequate cold chain infrastructure, and increased input costs, making domestic growers less competitive compared to their counterparts in Iran and Turkiye. Due to poor cold chain infrastructure, India’s exports have been limited to the Northern part of India, which has short transit routes to neighboring countries. India’s apple exports are expected to increase to 45,000 MT, an 40% YoY increase driven by increased production. Still, imports will continue to surpass exports, with an estimated 430,000 MT in MY 2022/23. The decrease in transportation costs, coupled with stable demand, will continue to drive fresh apple imports from India which are likely to increase further in the foreseeable future.