India’s Demand for Almonds is Waning, Despite Dirt-Cheap Prices

Almond Kernel

Raw Almond

India

Published Nov 10, 2022

Almond prices are under downward pressure globally, pushed lower by a large carry-over from the 2021/22 season, global production which could again top 1.5 million mt in 2022/23, and weak demand. In the world’s top importer, India, consumer demand has fallen amid economic uncertainty, and even with almond prices at multi-year lows, importers remain on the sideline. India imported only 114,836 mt of almonds from the US and Australia in the first 9 months of 2022. This is a 6% drop from the same period last year from India’s top two suppliers.

India is the world’s largest importer of almonds, and imports have increased every year since 2015. In 2021, India imported 168 K mt of almonds (on a kernel basis) valued at USD 978 M. 2022 could be the first time in 7 years that Indian almond imports decrease from the year before.

India’s main supplier is the US, which had a market share of 82% in 2021. Australia is India’s second-largest supplier, with a market share of 10% in 2021. Using export data from India’s top two suppliers makes it possible to quantify the much-talked-about decrease in India’s demand for almonds.

India’s almond imports from the US and Australia have decreased by 6% YoY over the first 9 months of 2022. According to the Almond Board of California (ABC) and Almond Board of Australia (ABA), India imported 114,836 mt of almonds (on a kernel basis) in the first 9 months of 2022 from the US and Australia. This is 6% lower than the 122,428 mt imported from the same origins in the first 9 months of 2021.

Earlier in 2022, in Q2, India’s imports were unusually strong. However, this was due to the ripple effects of the export delays in the US at the end of 2021 and early 2022. When the bottlenecks in California harbors started clearing, India imported large volumes in order to replenish almond stocks. Nonetheless, imports from the US and Australia in Q3 were only an estimated 35,400 mt, far below imports of 62,599 mt in Q3 from the same origins a year ago.

*India’s Sep 2022 imports from Australia are an estimate

Source: ABC, ABA, Tridge

The slow demand from the world’s largest almond importer will be disappointing given the low price of almonds globally. Prices worldwide have been pushed down by a large carry-over from the 2021/22 season, another global crop of more than 1.5 million mt, and weak demand. Consumer demand is slowing down amid economic uncertainty, with India being a clear example. While inflation has pushed virtually all other food prices higher, almond prices, like many other nuts, have moved sideways to lower throughout 2022. Wholesale raw almond prices in Mumbai, as tracked by Tridge, were only USD 8.37/kg early in November. This is 5% lower than at the start of the year but is still not enough to boost India’s imports. Many buyers pick up almonds at bargain prices whenever prices dip, but for the most part, remain on the sideline while prices continue to trend downward.