Lower Production of Egyptian Mandarin Is Expected to Push Prices up in Season 2022/23

Published 2022년 10월 31일

Based on local insight from Ahmad Shalaby, Tridge Senior Origination Manager in Egypt, heat waves during the flowering stage of mandarin, especially the Honey Murcot winter variety, affected fruit production. The overall output of fresh mandarin in Egypt is expected to decrease by as much as 75%, depending on the variety. Due to adverse weather, lower quantities of fresh mandarin are expected mainly in the EU market, with lower production in competing countries like Spain, Morocco, and Pakistan. Reduced availability of fresh mandarins in season 2022/23 will lead to higher prices, which, according to Ahmad Shalaby, will increase by around 25%.

According to Ahmad Shalaby, Tridge Senior Origination Manager in Egypt, production of the Honey Murcot mandarin variety, one of the main exported varieties from Egypt, is expected to decrease in season 2022/23. First, the Northern parts of Egypt experienced a heat wave at the end of W39 and into W40, when temperatures increased rapidly to highs of 40°C. High temperatures continued to affect mandarin production in Egypt in W42-43, damaging the flowering of the trees. Estimations are that damage in this stage will lower the overall mandarin production by as much as 60-75% across planting areas in Egypt. Extensive damage will lead to limited availability of mandarins for export, leading to higher prices.

Source: Tridge

The Honey Murcot mandarin harvest usually starts in early February, while the primary export market is The Russian Federation. In the first half of 2022, Egyptian Agri’s exports to Russia increased by 27% on a value basis. The volumes of Egyptian agricultural commodities sent to the Russian market reached 50,145 mt, a 15.70% YoY increase. In terms of value, exports to Russia have increased to USD 46M, compared to USD 36M in the previous year. In 2021, Russia marked a 30.9% market share and USD 20.09M value for exported fresh mandarin from Egypt. Ukraine was second, with a market share of 11.7% and USD 7.59M, marking a very high 897.77% 5-year growth in the export value of fresh mandarins. EU member states are also observing a significant increase in export value, with the Netherlands (287.13% 5-year growth) taking the lead. Still, Egyptian traders are diversifying export markets, maintaining their position in the EU, and with a strong presence in GCC countries.

Due to adverse weather, Egypt's mandarin production is expected to decrease significantly in the 2022/23 season. Most producers expect a 60% drop, especially for winter varieties like Murcot. This will reduce the availability of Egyptian mandarin, and prices are expected to increase by around 25% this season. Based on Tridge data, the average wholesale price for fresh mandarin was USD 0.23/kg in W4 on October 22.

Competing markets like Spain, Morocco, and Pakistan are also expected to have a decrease in production this season which will further reduce the availability of mandarins and push prices up in the importing markets, especially in the EU. Besides adverse weather, Egypt's farmers also face increased input and logistical costs.