Tridge’s Mid-2025 Market Insights: Key Drivers of Supply, Pricing, and Global Mango Trade

Published May 23, 2025

From Jan-25 to May 25, the global mango market experienced significant supply and price volatility shifts, primarily driven by climatic events, logistical disruptions, and evolving regional demand. North America saw robust import volumes, especially from Mexico, which led to relatively stable to firm prices for key varieties like Ataulfo and Honey. In contrast, European markets faced downward price pressure due to overlapping supply seasons. Regional performance varies, with strong North American demand and increased supply projections from Mexico and Central America, while Europe navigates a transition between Peruvian and West African sources. On the other hand, Asian markets present a mixed picture. Climate issues remain the main factor for mango trade, with the industry needing to adapt to persistent weather changes and structural issues like water scarcity while pursuing strategies like market diversification and strengthening domestic brands.

Driven by climatic challenges, logistical hurdles, and evolving demand patterns, the global mango market in mid-2025 is characterized by significant supply realignments and price fluctuations across key regions. While North America saw robust volumes, particularly from Mexico, leading to generally stable to firm pricing for popular varieties, European markets experienced price pressures due to overlapping supplier seasons. According to the National Mango Board (NMB), total mango volume shipped to the United States (US) for the week ending May 10, 2025, reached approximately 4.76 million boxes. Mexican shipments accounted for around 4.22 million boxes, a notable increase from 3.11 million boxes during the same week in 2024. NMB's US market data further showed that Ataulfo/Honey mangoes (size 12) from Mexico averaged between USD 10.00 and USD 12.50 per box at the Texas port of entry in early May-25.

Figure 1. Domestic Prices of Fresh Mango by Origin Country

Source: Tridge

Key Drivers Impacting Global Trade

Several factors are behind these price levels. . Atypical weather patterns have significantly impacted production in several key regions. Mexico, the leading supplier to the US, faced numerous cold fronts earlier in the season, affecting both volume and quality, particularly for yellow varieties like Ataulfo. Conversely, Spain's Andalusian mango sector benefits from vigorous flowering after abundant spring rains, potentially boosting its 2025 harvest from the 20,000 metric tons (mt) produced in 2024. Logistical issues, including container shortages and increased freight costs, compounded by events like the Red Sea crisis impacting Indian airfreight, continue to disrupt traditional trade flows and add to cost pressures. For instance, Peru's early and high-volume season, as discussed in Tridge Outlook reports, was complicated by such logistical strains, leading to overlaps with Brazilian and Ecuadorian supplies.

Global Mango Market Performance

Regionally, North American demand remains strong, supported by promotional activities. The NMB projects Mexico's 2025 season to be approximately 12% higher year-over-year (YoY) for US shipments, with Guatemala and Nicaragua also expecting significant increases of 14% and 74%, respectively. In Europe, the transition from Peruvian to West African mangoes, primarily from Côte d'Ivoire, has led to overlapping supply and price declines in markets like Italy and France, which Tridge also covered in its Weekly Updates. Meanwhile, Asian markets show mixed trends. India's exports face US tariff uncertainties and high airfreight costs, while China's Guifei mango supply in Hainan has stabilized after early-season weather disruptions.

Figure 2. Overview of Global Fresh Mango Market

Source: Tridge

Outlook and Strategic Adaptations for the Mango Sector

Looking ahead, the global mango market is poised for continued adjustments. The US market can anticipate sustained and likely increased supply from Central America, though availability of specific sizes and varieties may fluctuate. On the other hand, Mexico's tariffs introduce a significant financial factor that can influence the actual volume and price of mangoes reaching the US market. tEuropean markets will likely see stabilization as the West African season, particularly from Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, fully commences, though Senegal's harvest start remains uncertain due to erratic ripening. The overarching challenge for the industry, as highlighted in 2025 projections, will be adapting to persistent climatic variability and addressing structural issues like water scarcity to ensure consistent supply and predictable pricing for buyers globally. Diversification of export markets, as pursued by Brazil, and strengthening domestic markets will also be crucial strategies. Spain's "Mango de Málaga" initiative, for example, effectively differentiates local mangoes by promoting optimal ripeness and sustainability, thereby enhancing their competitiveness against imports.