May 2025 Outlook Report: Fruits

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,045.93 per 40-foot container in Apr-25, marking a 6.87% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 15.61% year-on-year (YoY) decrease, primarily driven by the United States (US)-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 129.25 points, marking a 0.66% MoM increase, driven by higher prices for diammonium phosphate (DAP) and potassium chloride, which more than offset the decline in urea prices.

- Avocado: Avocado prices in Mexico fell sharply YoY in Apr-25, reflecting increased production and export volumes, while the industry launched major sustainability initiatives targeting net-zero emissions by 2035. In Spain, national prices rose, whereas regional markets faced steep declines due to a surge in Moroccan imports and local production challenges. Chilean avocado prices also dropped significantly, as the country lost market share in China to Peru, despite growing Chinese demand and a stable domestic supply.

- Grape: Grape prices in Peru and Chile showed modest MoM increases in Apr-25, with Peru achieving record export volumes and leveraging logistics advantages to expand its market share in Europe and Asia. Chile’s grape sector rebounded in price due to improved demand, while introducing certified organic grapes to the US, expanding its product offerings. However, new US tariffs and overlapping supply from other countries created market uncertainty. South Africa experienced a price recovery driven by reduced supply at the end of the harvest and strong export demand, especially to Europe and Canada.

- Mango: Peru’s mango exports continued to grow in early 2025, with the US as the top destination. Wholesale prices rose MoM, but remained well below the previous year’s levels due to overproduction and increased competition from Brazil and Mexico. Despite logistical challenges, Peru’s mango sector is benefiting from strong international demand and expanding export volumes.