US Cherry Exports to Japan Decrease due to High Prices

Published Jul 1, 2022

The US-Japan cherry trade has been hampered this year due to higher prices for cherries in the US caused by previous freezes in California. This negatively impacted the crop size and pushed prices up in Jun-22, registering a 15.2% MoM. Additionally, an increase in cherry domestic production in Japan has made Japanese cherry more affordable in the market. Furthermore, an increasing demand for cherries in the US, induced by the upcoming Independence Day celebrations (July 4th), has also worsened prices and availability for cherries in the US.

According to the USDA, cherry harvest in California is estimated to be down by approximately 50% of what an average year is considered. In 2021, California produced approximately 60 thousand mt. A frost in February damaged the crop substantially followed by an unusual amount of rainfall in April, a critical time in the crop season. Therefore, the cherry harvest in California ended earlier than expected and with significantly short volumes.

Furthermore, in Washington, the leading state for cherries in the US, the cherry season is delayed and is also expected with a short volume. The weather in Washington this year has been unpredictable, with frosts and snow in April during the blooming of the fruit. The USDA forecast a 30 to 35% decrease in production from last season’s 165 thousand mt. The unpredictable weather during May has made cherry growers in Washington delay the harvest, causing further market supply shortages.

Besides the delays and production shortages that the 2022 season has experienced, there has also been a notable increase in demand for cherries in the US market in June -induced by the upcoming Independence Day (July 4th) celebrations. The combination of those factors has raised cherry prices considerably in the market. According to Tridge’s price chart, prices of cherries in the US registered a 15.2% MoM increase in the third week of June, when the price in the Baltimore wholesale market stood at USD 15.98/kg, which was also an 8.5% YoY increase.

The price increase in the US and the low availability of fruit have consequently impacted the export volume for cherries in the US. According to Katsuhito Inakubo, Tridge’s Trade & Engagement in Japan, US cherry exports to Japan have increased substantially this season. “Cherry suppliers in the Pacific Northwest region of the US have quoted above average prices in June due to limited supply and increased demand. Therefore, although US cherry exports have slowed down in general, exports to Japan have decreased in particular as only a handful of buyers with definite demand are purchasing cherries”, he explained.

The Japanese demand for US cherries has not only been affected by prices and availability but also by increased Japanese cherry domestic production. As part of the 2014 Revitalization Strategy national policy to increase agricultural exports, the northern Japanese region of Yamagata has increased cherry production this season. According to Mr. Inakubo, the domestic production of this region has effectively substituted US imports. “Japanese cherries have been lately more affordable and available at the same time than imported cherries,” he added.

The US supplied 91.8% of all Japan’s cherry imports in 2021. By volume, US cherry exports to Japan in 2021 totaled 5.4 thousand mt, up 37% YoY. In value, exports of fresh cherries to Japan were USD 41.6 million, a 20% YoY increase from USD 35 million the previous year. The US-Japan cherry trade has substantially grown over the years, and for US growers, it has become a very significant market. However, this year, various factors will significantly impact the trade, and exports will decrease considerably.