Volatile Avocado Prices Remap Global Supply Lines

European Market Grapples with Oversupply and Price Declines

Europe's avocado market is facing mounting pressure from oversupply, with Italy emerging as a focal point amid sharp price declines and shifting import dynamics. Italy is experiencing a turbulent period for Peruvian Hass avocados. According to Tridge Domestic Price Data, prices are dropping significantly to USD 4.78 per kilogram (kg) in W4 of May-25, marking a 18.89% Week-on-week (WoW) decrease, even as demand for other varieties, such as Pinkerton, remains strong. Similarly, Germany reports that European Union (EU) avocado volumes are up by a staggering 37% year-over-year (YoY), predominantly large calibers, which is straining the spot market. 

Despite strong demand, France saw prices for Peruvian Hass declining due to high volumes, dropping to USD 6.90/4-kg bag in W1 of May-25, an 8% WoW decrease, potentially leading to an earlier end to their season. Spain, a significant producer and trader, has experienced growth in exports and imports in Q1-2025, with a notable surge in imports from Morocco and anticipation of an ample summer supply from Peru. This European scenario of abundant supply and resulting price pressure is a dominant theme, with the expected full resumption of sea freight through the Suez Canal likely to further amplify supply in the coming months.

North America mirrors this trend, with stable post-Cinco de Mayo demand being met by increased supplies from California, Mexico, Peru, and Colombia, collectively pushing prices downward. Mexico, the world's leading producer, anticipates a 5% increase in production, with the US remaining its primary export destination, despite ongoing tariff uncertainties. Despite a later start to its 2025 season, Peru is shipping higher volumes, leading to European market saturation and a strategic pivot towards Asian and US markets to alleviate pressure.

Tridge's W21 update corroborates the general trend of increased Peruvian and Mexican output, as well as the resultant price pressures in the US. The update highlights Peru’s expectation of a 2% YoY increase in exports for 2025 and Mexico’s projected 5% export growth. It also points to emerging players like Zambia, which is expanding its avocado industry and has recently begun supplying local Shoprite stores, backed by government programs and a new trade deal with South Africa aimed at boosting exports. 

Figure 1. Domestic Prices of Fresh Avocado by Origin Country

Source: Tridge Eye

Price Spikes in China and South Africa

On the other hand, the situation in China, where reduced arrivals and a delayed Peruvian shipment have caused a sharp price increase for avocados, presents a contrast to the oversupply narrative in other markets. South Africa's local market is experiencing prices 34% higher than last year due to rain-delayed harvests and lower supply, despite projecting significant export volumes of 22.5 million 4-kg cartons amid growing interest in China and India. 

Furthermore, Morocco's achievement of exporting over 100,000 metric tons (mt) for the first time, despite facing lower prices due to global abundance and increased local competition, is a noteworthy development. Demonstrating a significant surge in market penetration, Morocco solidified its position as Spain's top avocado supplier in early 2025. Spanish imports of Moroccan avocados rose to 29,160 mt in Q1 2025, a significant 73% YoY jump from the 16,855 mt in the same period of 2024 and an even more striking 158% increase from 2023's 11,273 mt, as reported by the Ministry of Foreign Trade.

Tridge's insights, the Weekly Updates and Monthly Outlook reports, indicate a global market saturation with avocados, particularly from Latin America. This inevitably leads to price corrections and reveals significant regional variations. The challenge for avocado producers lies in managing this high-volume, low-price environment through market diversification and logistical efficiency, while new entrants, such as Zambia, see opportunities. Overall flexibility, a focus on quality, strategic market placement, and effective oversupply management are paramount for success in the current avocado trade.