W11 Chicken Update: Brazil Navigates Lower Revenues, EU Gears Up for Import Rise

Published 2024년 3월 22일

In W11 in the chicken landscape, chicken meat exports in Brazil saw positive volume growth in Feb-24, reaching 397.7 thousand mt, reflecting a 4.7% YoY increase. However, export revenues declined by 4% YoY to USD 707 million. China remains the primary destination, but exports to other nations like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Japan surged. Meanwhile, the EU's chicken meat imports are projected to rise by 3.5% YoY in 2024, with Ukraine emerging as a major supplier. However, uncertainty looms over preferential trade agreements, impacting imports from the UK and Thailand. Brazil's imports remain stable amidst these shifts. The future of EU imports hinges on the extension of preferential treatment for Ukrainian chicken meat imports.

Brazilian Chicken Exports Maintain Momentum Despite Revenue Decline

Brazil's chicken meat export sector continues to exhibit positive volume growth in 2024 despite a decline in revenue compared to 2023. Chicken meat export volumes in Feb-24 reached 397.7 thousand metric tons (mt), reflecting a 4.7% year-on-year (YoY) increase compared to Feb-23 (379.2 thousand mt). This positive trend extends to the year-to-date (YTD) figures, with total exports reaching 802.2 thousand mt, representing a marginal 0.3% YoY increase compared to the same period in 2023 (800.1 thousand mt).

Despite the positive volume trends, export revenues in Feb-24 fell by 4% YoY, reaching USD 707 million compared to USD 736.3 million in Feb-23. This decline is further amplified when examining YTD figures, with accumulated revenue reaching USD 1.39 billion, a 12.7% YoY decrease compared to the USD 1.593 billion recorded in the first two months of 2023. China remains the primary destination for Brazilian chicken meat exports, although volumes have decreased by 28% YoY to 80.4 thousand mt in the first two months of 2024. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Japan have witnessed significant export YoY growth, increasing by 27.7%, 8.4%, and 26.2%, respectively. This growth is attributed to pre-Ramadan stocking and uncertainties arising from regional conflicts. Exports to other Islamic nations, such as Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait, have also shown notable growth, reflecting a diversification of Brazil's export markets.

Rising EU Chicken Meat Imports: Opportunities and Challenges

According to forecasts from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), European Union (EU) chicken meat imports are estimated to rise by 3.5% YoY in 2024. The European Union's (EU) chicken meat import market is projected to experience continued growth in 2024, following a 2% YoY increase observed in 2023. Ukraine has emerged as a leading contender in the EU's chicken meat import landscape. Its exports to the bloc surged by over 150% YoY in 2023, benefiting from EU regulations that currently allow duty-free and quota-free entry of Ukrainian chicken meat. However, continuing these preferential concessions beyond June 5, 2024, remains uncertain.

Chicken meat imports from other major suppliers witnessed mixed results in 2023. Imports from the United Kingdom (UK) declined by 20% YoY due to stricter post-Brexit sanitary controls. Thai exports faced increased competition from Ukraine, leading to a slight decrease. Brazilian imports remained stable. These trends are expected to continue in 2024, with the potential for modest increases if challenges are addressed. The possible extension of preferential treatment for Ukrainian chicken meat imports beyond June 5, 2024, will be a crucial determinant of the long-term trajectory of the EU's chicken meat import landscape.