W11 Lamb and Mutton Update: US Meat Exports Surge as Australian Farmer Confidence Rebounds

Published 2024년 3월 25일

In W11 in the lamb and mutton landscape, according to data from USDA compiled by USMEF, Jan-24 saw a 28% YoY increase in US lamb export volumes, totaling 303 mt, with a corresponding 53% YoY rise in export value to USD 1.7 million. While US beef exports experienced a slight drop in volumes by 1% compared to Jan-23, the export value increased by 9% YoY to USD 763.8 million, driven by strong demand from key markets like South Korea, Japan, and Mexico. Meanwhile, in Australia, the latest Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey indicates a significant rebound in farmer confidence, marking the first positive outlook since Jun-22. Improved seasonal conditions, particularly in key cropping regions, have bolstered sentiment among Victorian farmers, with optimism also seen in the red meat industries, driven by favorable commodity prices and improved market performance expectations compared to the volatility experienced in 2023.

Strong Start for US Meat Exports in 2024, Lamb Reaches New Highs

Recent data from the United States (US) Department of Agriculture (USDA) compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF) revealed a positive view of US meat exports in the early months of 2024. US lamb exports achieved their strongest start in over four years, with volumes of 303 metric tons (mt) in Jan-24, marking a 28% year-on-year (YoY) increase. The export value (USD 1.7 million) also rose significantly by 53% YoY compared to the previous year. This growth is due to increased demand from the Caribbean, Canada, and Mexico.

While US beef export volumes witnessed a slight decline (1%) compared to Jan-23 (99.76 thousand mt), the export value rose by 9% YoY (USD 763.8 million). This upward trend was observed in key markets like South Korea, Japan, Mexico, Canada, Central America, the Caribbean, and Hong Kong. USMEF anticipates a challenging year for beef supply availability but remains optimistic due to a positive value trend and signs of recovery in Asian markets, particularly South Korea.

Australian Farmer Confidence Rebounds on Improved Seasonal Conditions

The latest Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey reveals a significant improvement in Australian farmer sentiment, marking the first positive outlook since Jun-22. Net national rural confidence rose from -41% in Q4-23 to 15% in Q1-24, indicating a shift towards optimism among farmers regarding the year ahead. Victorian farmers exhibited the highest confidence levels nationally, driven by positive seasonal expectations and anticipated favorable commodity prices.

Notably, Victorian sheep producers expressed strong optimism within the state, buoyed by hopes of a better market performance compared to the volatile conditions experienced in 2023. Confidence within the red meat industries witnessed a significant upturn. Nationally, net confidence in the sheep sector improved from -45% in Q4-23 to 27% in Q1-24, while the beef sector rose from -40% to 29% during the same period. Rising commodity prices were identified as a key driver of this optimism, with 59% of sheep producers attributing their positivity to this factor.

Favorable weather patterns, particularly summer rainfall that replenished soil moisture levels in key cropping regions and bolstered grazing area feed supplies, contributed to a decline in drought concerns among farmers. Only 8% of respondents expecting a deterioration in the agricultural economy cited drought as a worry, compared to 45% in the previous quarter.