1. Weekly News

Global

Global Coffee Prices Reach Historic Highs in 2024 Amid Weather Challenges

In 2024, global coffee prices surged by 38.8%, driven by adverse weather in major producing countries: Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Uganda. Arabica prices increased 58% , while Robusta prices rose by 70%. This was influenced by reduced exports from Vietnam, lower production in Indonesia, and unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil. Vietnam’s coffee output dropped by 20%, and Brazil faced a production decrease due to drought. Higher shipping costs also contributed to the price hike. These challenges have led to higher consumer prices in the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) stresses the need for investments in climate-resilient farming techniques and greater market transparency to ensure sustainable growth in the coffee sector.

Algeria

Algeria’s Tax Reduction Opens Doors for Increased Vietnamese Coffee Exports

Algeria’s recent decision to reduce import taxes on coffee, including a decrease in the coffee import tax from 30% to 5%, creates a significant opportunity for Vietnamese businesses. Effective through 2025, the new policy reduces total import fees for Robusta coffee to just 10%, making Vietnamese coffee more competitive in the Algerian market. With Algeria importing 130,000 metric tons (mt) of coffee annually, Vietnam, a major exporter, is well-positioned to expand its market share, capitalizing on the appreciation of its high-quality Robusta coffee.

China

Yunnan's Coffee Industry Grows as Global Demand Surges

Pu'er, a city in Yunnan province, has become a significant player in China’s coffee industry, with the largest cultivation area and highest yields in the country. In 2024, Yunnan exported 1,800 mt of green coffee beans, and in early 2025, coffee exports surged by 339.3%, reaching USD 19.28 million (CNY 140 million). Known for its clean taste and floral aroma, Yunnan coffee has gained global attention, especially in Europe, the US, South Korea, and Japan. With growing domestic demand and improved farming techniques, Yunnan is positioned as China’s leading coffee exporter, establishing a strong presence in international markets.

Colombia

Colombian Coffee Boom Pressures Peruvian Exports

Colombia’s record-high coffee production in Feb-25 has intensified competition in global markets, leading to a sharp decline in Peruvian coffee exports. In February, Peru exported 3,967 tons worth USD 18.7 million, marking a 63% drop in volume and a 44% decline in value year-on-year (YoY). The US remained Peru’s top buyer, accounting for 23% of exports, followed by Colombia (20%) and Mexico (14%). Colombia’s coffee output reached 14.8 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags in the past year, the highest in 29 years, amplifying supply pressure on regional producers.

Uganda

Mbarara Coffee Industry Thrives but Farmers Struggle with Rising Costs

Coffee farming in Mbarara District is a key economic activity involving 35,000 households . Uganda’s coffee exports surged to USD 167.78 million in Feb-25, reflecting industry growth, but Mbarara farmers need stronger policies, cooperative support, and climate adaptation to fully benefit from the global market. Rising global prices have encouraged more farmers to cultivate coffee, but they face challenges such as drought, high production costs, and market exploitation. Farmers struggle with expensive fertilizers and pests, advocating for organic manure as a cost-effective alternative. Drought remains a major issue, requiring manual watering and impacting yields. Middlemen exploit farmers’ limited market knowledge, prompting district officials to promote cooperatives for better pricing and market access. Experts recommend climate-smart farming, pest-resistant coffee varieties, and improved irrigation to enhance resilience.

United States

US Coffee Prices Expected to Rise Amid Supply Challenges

Coffee prices in the US are expected to increase further as major roasters, including Lavazza, Illy, Nestlé, and JDE Peet’s, discuss passing rising costs onto retailers. Arabica prices have nearly doubled in a year, pushing the average ground coffee price to USD 7.25 per pound (lb). Supply chain disruptions, extreme weather in key growing regions, and tariff disputes have contributed to the surge. Despite these pressures, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global coffee production to rise by 6.9 million 60-kg bags in 2024/25, driven by rebounds in Vietnam and Indonesia. Arabica output is also expected to increase in Colombia, Central America, and Mexico, while China’s coffee consumption continues its rapid growth, up nearly 150% over the past decade.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (W13 2024 to W13 2025) 

Brazil

Brazilian coffee prices have surged significantly, rising from USD 5.94/kg in W13 2024 to USD 10.17/kg in W13 2025, a 71.21% increase YoY. Prices increased significantly, rising 3.25% week-on-week (WoW) and 26.34% month-on-month (MoM). This price hike is primarily driven by lower-than-expected yields caused by drought conditions and other climate risks, which have led to supply constraints. The tightening of global coffee supply, combined with strong demand from key markets like the US and Europe, has further pushed prices up. Additionally, unpredictable weather patterns, currency fluctuations, and ongoing market pressures have maintained upward momentum, resulting in a sharp increase in Brazil's coffee prices over the past year.

Colombia

Colombian coffee prices have been steadily increasing, rising from USD 8.23/kg in W13 2024 to USD 10.23/kg in W13 2025, reflecting a 24.30% YoY growth. The prices also saw a 1.99% WoW rise and a 13.79% MoM increase. This price growth is primarily attributed to a combination of adverse weather conditions affecting key coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, which have led to a tighter global coffee supply affecting demand in all major producing countries including Colombia. Additionally, growing international demand for premium Colombian coffee, particularly from the US, along with Colombia’s increased export efforts, has further supported the price hike. The ongoing global coffee shortage and heightened competition from other exporters have also played a key role in maintaining these elevated prices.

Vietnam

Vietnamese coffee prices declined 0.38% WoW to USD 5.22/kg in W13, likely due to short-term supply adjustments as farmers withheld stocks, anticipating higher prices in the future. Prices have risen significantly, with a 1.95% MoM and 30.50% YoY increase. This price surge is driven by reduced Robusta production caused by dry weather, leading to a 25-year low in output, and strong export demand, particularly from Europe and the US. The limited domestic supply, combined with farmers holding back stocks and a tightening global market, has further pushed prices up, despite a drop in export volumes.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Diversify Sourcing to Manage Supply Risks

As weather challenges impact key coffee-producing countries, including Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia, coffee buyers should diversify their sourcing strategies. By expanding their supplier base across regions such as Central America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, they can mitigate risks associated with reliance on a few key markets. To address the volatility caused by climate-related production shortfalls, buyers should secure long-term contracts with multiple suppliers in different regions. This would allow them to balance supply disruptions in one country with consistent deliveries from others.

Adapt to Changing Consumer Preferences in Developed Markets

With the rise in coffee prices globally, there is a growing opportunity for retailers to tap into the premium coffee segment, especially in the US and EU, where demand for high-quality, sustainable coffee continues to rise. Promoting single-origin, organic, and eco-friendly coffee can attract discerning consumers willing to pay higher prices. To balance the rise in prices and consumer resistance, retailers should explore offering tiered pricing models that cater to different segments. They could introduce smaller packaging sizes or subscription models that offer discounts on bulk purchases to retain customers despite price increases.

Promote Value-added Coffee Products

With rising prices and global demand, there is a growing opportunity for producers to focus on value-added coffee products, such as coffee capsules, instant coffee, and ready-to-drink beverages. These products cater to the convenience-driven consumer market, which is expanding in both developed and emerging markets. Coffee producers and roasters should invest in packaging innovations and marketing strategies that highlight the quality, sustainability, and convenience of their value-added products. By diversifying product offerings, they can cushion the impact of price fluctuations while tapping into new revenue streams.

Sources: Tridge, All Africa, Agraria Peru, Agro Peru, APBAC, ECNS, Food Fakty, Food Ingredients 1st, Nong Nghiep, Vina Net,