W13: Weekly Lamb & Mutton Update

Australia

Lamb Supplies to Remain Price-Depressant in Australia (Mar 28)

Lamb and sheep prices have been on the decline this autumn thus far. Lamb supplies have been stronger than last year and processing constraints persist, which leads to lower prices. Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) and Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) released their February producer intentions survey (PULSE) results in a fortnight ago. The headline from the PULSE report was that a lot of lambs had been carried over from the spring, to be sold in summer or autumn. MLA’s weekly slaughter data indicates that during the spring lamb slaughter on the east coast was 11.6% stronger than last year in the spring. If fewer lambs were sold than expected, there is either a huge increase in lamb supply coming this year or the lambs which weren’t sold were store lambs, not slaughter lambs. It is likely a combination of these factors, but the strong slaughter suggests growers who usually sell lambs at stores held more back as they didn’t like the price. Going back to MLA’s February projections, it is clear that lamb slaughter for 2023 is only expected to be 3% higher than in 2022. For the YTD, there are 7% more lambs slaughtered, despite the well-documented restrictions on capacity. 

Discounted Sheep and Goat Eid Tags Now Available in Australia (Mar 29)

Discounted electronic identification (eID) ear tags are now available for the 2023 lamb and kid drop, as part of a Western Australian pilot to prepare for the adoption of the mandatory system for sheep and goats by January 2025. The Tag Incentive Payment discount is part of the WA Government’s USD 3.4M commitment to implement the nationally agreed eID system and enhance the State’s traceability capacity in response to increasing emergency animal disease threats. National Livestock Identification System (NLIS) traceability is vital for a rapid response to an emergency animal disease or food safety incident and to underpin valuable trade relationships and export markets. Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) Deputy Chief Veterinary Officer Chris Rodwell said the sky blue 2023 year-of-birth eID tags would enable the scanning devices to be tested ahead of the 1 January 2025 start date.

Rain Re-Energizes Store Lamb & Sheep Market (Mar 31)

There’s nothing quite like a bit of rain to add some fuel to a market. Lambs heading back to the paddock and sheep attracted enthusiastic bidding this week after a good dose of rain in eastern NSW, Victoria, Tas, and WA. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) picked up 28¢ WoW, to sit at 681¢/kg cwt. This is 112¢ (-14%) below the same time last year. In the West, trade lambs also met stronger buying activity, and the indicator picked up 59¢ to 542¢/kg cwt, 141¢ lower than the same time last year. Re-stocker lamb prices improved in all eastern states, but still have a long way to go before they recover from the decline that began at the end of February. The National Re-stocker Lamb Indicator lifted 42¢ this week to 572¢/kg cwt, down 281¢ (-33%) YoY. Light lambs were steady last week, while Merino lambs lost 25¢. Heavy lambs edged higher, with sale yard reports indicating that mixed quality saw well-bred and well-fed lines improving while plainer types dragged. Mutton continued its upward trajectory due to the widespread rain. Both NSW and Vic saw around a 25¢ lift in mutton prices and the National Mutton Indicator improved another 18¢ on the week to 344¢/kg cwt.

United Kingdom

Sheep Meat Imports Drop on the Year, With Exports Down on December (Mar 28)

Overall levels of sheep meat imports have very marginally fallen to 2.37K MT for January, a small decline from December’s levels. This marginal change in volumes resulted from a fall of nearly 180MT (20.5%) from Ireland, and an increase of 191MT (30.8%) imported from New Zealand. Looking at YoY volumes, there has been a substantial overall decline of nearly 2K MT (45.6%) from January 2022. The vast majority of this decline can be attributed to falling imports from New Zealand, down 1.26K MT (60.9%) from January 2022. The drop in volume imported from New Zealand was most prevalent in the autumn of 2022, with subsequent lower import volumes remaining relatively equal. Similar trends are seen with Australian imports, down 838MT (55.5%) for the same time period.

Volumes have fallen on the month but grown on the year as export volumes hit just under 6K MT for January 2023. There has been a total fall of 1.63K MT (21.5%) from December’s levels. YoY, however, total export volumes have increased by 44.8% (1.85K MT) from 4.13K MT in January 2022. Export volumes from January 2022 were still recovering from the previous year’s drop in exports predominantly as a result of regulatory changes, and volumes for January 2023 sit just 500MT shy of the 2016-2020 5-year average. Exports MoM fell to France by 725MT (20.4%), Germany by 169MT (13.1%), and Belgium by 136MT (19%). During the year, exports to France have increased by 858MT (43.4%), with an uptick of 400MT to Germany (55.5%), and 115MT to Belgium.

70% Of Farmers Experienced Sheep Worrying Last Year (Mar 28)

A survey carried out by the National Sheep Association (NSA) has found that 70% of farmers have experienced a sheep worrying attack in the past 12 months. 95% of the 300 sheep farmers surveyed said they experienced up to 10 cases of sheep worrying every year. On average, the NSA said, 3 sheep deaths were reported each year due to a dog attack and this does not take into account production losses in sheep, including miscarriage, that were reported by almost 70% of respondents. NSA chief executive Phil Stocker said UK farmers are making huge gains improving animal health but that one of the most concerning threats to sheep welfare, worrying by dogs, continues to be “swept under the carpet”. 

UK Farmers Warned to Monitor Worm Burdens Following Record Peaks in 2022 (Mar 29)

Farmers must be on their guard for roundworms in sheep this season by regularly conducting fecal egg counts, as data from last year revealed record peaks in worm egg counts despite a hotter-than-average summer. Now in its eighth year monitoring worm egg counts through a network of 26 sentinel farms across the country, the Zoetis Parasite Watch Scheme has found last year’s counts to be the highest to date. Average worm egg counts peaked at over 950 eggs per gram (epg) in September, with levels above 250 epg seen from the end of April until the end of recording in November. Sheep farmer Peter Baber from Weir Park Farm in Exeter, Devon, one of the farms involved in the scheme, believes the higher-than-average egg counts last year may have been the result of grazing pressures due to a shortage of grass and nutritional stress. 

Ireland

Factories Reveal the Opening Price for Spring Lamb (Mar 27)

This week’s sheep trade sees the first factories announce their opening prices for spring lamb, with hogget quotes increasing by a further 10c/kg and ewe price edging up 10c/kg at some sites also. With just two weeks to go until Easter Sunday, the number of spring lambs slaughtered to date this year is still very low. However, supplies will begin to pick up over the coming few weeks. Many flocks that were traditionally lambing earlier in the year in an effort to have finished lambs available in time for Easter have delayed their lambing this season due to increasing costs, and it will be interesting to see how supplies of lamb this season compare to supply from previous years.

Deepening Crisis in Sheep Sector Requires Urgent Action (Mar 29)

Irish Farmers Association (IFA) Sheep Chairman Kevin Comiskey said the crisis in the sheep sector is deepening as prices continue well below last year’s levels. He said prices this year are still 70c/kg behind last year with input costs on sheep farms showing no signs of reducing. "Last year’s margins of just USD 7.63/ewe (€7) as presented by Teagasc at the national IFA Sheep meeting in Athlone at the end of January clearly highlighted the extent of the problems on farms in 2022. With prices running almost USD 17.43/lamb (€16) behind last year’s levels, sheep farmers are facing a critical situation if urgent action is not taken by the Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue", he said. Kevin Comiskey said the Minister convened the Food Vision Sheep Group over a month ago to put forward proposals to address the crisis in the sector.

Over 570K Sheep Processed So Far This Year (Apr 1)

Last week’s factory sheep kill resulted in over 67K sheep being processed, according to figures from the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM). Taking a look at this year’s overall throughput figures to date, 638.15K sheep have been processed so far. Of that figure, 570.18K have been hogget/lambs, with the rest made up of ewes and rams (67.11K), spring lambs (810), and a small number of light lambs (44 head). Supplies have continued to increase for week 12 and the increase in prices in the sheep trade has likely driven out additional numbers. Comparing figures to date this year, against the same period in 2022, the total number slaughtered is up by 5% (29.24K head). 24.7K additional hogget have been processed, while ewe and ram throughput is up on last year’s levels in excess of 4.9K head.

Turkey

550K Lambs Are Expected to Be Born in Muş, Turkey (Mar 28)

Lamb births have started in Muş, which is one of Turkey's most important livestock cities with a population of around 1.3M small cattle. In Muş, where bovine and ovine breeding is common, 550K lambs from 700K sheep and 40K kids from 50K goats are expected. Lamb and goat births, which started in December, increased the work of small cattle breeders. In the city, where winters were harsh in the past, the air temperature being above seasonal normals was an advantage for the breeders who took care of lambs and kids. 

Bulgaria

The Ministry of Agriculture Will Not Encourage Slaughterhouses to Buy Bulgarian Lambs This Year (Mar 30)

For three years in a row, the Ministry of Agriculture encouraged slaughterhouses to buy Bulgarian lambs before Easter. This good practice, which cost the state budget less than USD 0.56M (BGN 1M), will not be implemented this year, announced Simeon Karakolev, co-chairman of the National Sheep and Goat Breeding Association (NOKA). Confirmation of this is the silence of the Ministry of Agriculture. For the first time, state aid for slaughterhouses was introduced in the spring of 2020. The incentive for them then was USD 3.90/lamb (BGN 7), provided that the animals were purchased at a price no lower than USD 2.79/kg (BGN 5) of live weight. In the following years, the minimum purchase price increased, along with state aid. Last year, slaughterhouses received USD 5.57 (BGN 10) for a lamb purchased for a minimum of USD 4.18/kg (BGN 7.50). Two weeks ago, Simeon Karakolev warned that Macedonian lambs would enter Bulgaria for USD 3.62- 3.90/kg (BGN 6.50-7). 

Hungary

More Than 7K Sheep Farmers Receive Support (Mar 29)

The payment of subsidies for ewes related to production has begun. The support financed by the European Union will be paid to more than 7K sheep farmers in the amount of USD 16M (HUF 5.5B), announced Zsolt Feldman, the State Secretary responsible for agriculture and rural development of the Ministry of Agriculture. The state secretary reminded that the support structure of the Common Agricultural Policy, valid from 2015 and of particular importance for Hungary, is the system of subsidies linked to production. At the end of 2022, USD 13M (4.5 billion forints) have already been paid in the form of an advance for the sheep industry, and in the next few days, more than 7K livestock keepers will receive almost USD 16M (5.5 billion forints) in support. The Ministry of Agriculture once again draws the attention of those concerned to the fact that the joint publication of the Ministry and the Chamber of Agriculture summarizes the complex rules of subsidies linked to production under the title "Subsidies linked to production", which, in addition to general information, also lists subsidies linked to the production of crops and animal husbandry.

Lamb Will Be More Expensive During the Easter Period (Mar 31)

Due to the limited supply, the purchase price of lamb may increase to a lesser extent during the Easter period, the Sheep Product Council said. The fall in supply is due to the fact that many people postponed the fall breeding due to the lack of fodder caused by the drought, and the fact that Easter is early this year also plays a role, so fewer animals were affected by the weight of this sale. Before the festive period, the purchase price was 5-8% lower than in the same period last year, they added. According to their forecast, the export of live animals may decrease from 460K to 440K this year, but the decline may be smaller in terms of meat equivalent because the share of heavy lambs within exports is now close to 50%. A decade ago, the share of lightweights was almost 90%. The amount of meat exported will probably not change significantly, it could be 330-350MT, like last year. The biggest buyer is still Italy, but increasingly important export markets are Germany, Austria, and several states in the Middle East, they said. 45-50% of exports fall on Easter and 20-25% on Christmas.