W20: Chicken Update

In W20 in the chicken landscape, the USDA projects 2032 Brazilian chicken and turkey meat production to reach 19.1MMT, with 30% (5.8MMT) destined for exports and 70% (13.3MMT) for the domestic market. Compared to USDA 2022 estimates, this corresponds to an increase of 26.7% in production, a little over 24% in exports and almost 28% in domestic consumption. These estimates are much higher than those forecast globally, as global chicken and turkey production are expected to increase by just over 21%, exports by 22%, and consumption by less than 21.5%. The USDA forecast also shows that, if projected volumes are confirmed, Brazilian chicken and turkey production will have grown by 66% in two decades, much higher and much more significant than that of world production, with 51% expansion. Furthermore, Brazilian chicken and turkey exports are anticipated to increase by over 50%, very similar to that of global exports, and are expected to represent 2MMT more than in 2013. The forecast is that Brazil will maintain its global market share of 33% come 2032. On May 15th, Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture reported the identification of the first cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds off the coast of Espírito Santo. The Ministry of Agriculture notes that it does not expect embargoes from importers of Brazilian poultry products, as the disease has not been identified on commercial farms in the largest global exporter of chicken meat.

The market of live and slaughtered chicken in the interior of São Paulo and Minas Gerais in Brazil registered a downturn in demand, leading to a slowdown in sales and a drop in prices. Buyers have focused on strictly necessary acquisitions, during the second half of the month, which caused a decrease in consumption and lower values ​​in negotiations. In the live chicken segment, there was an increase in the availability of birds. However, the lack of people interested in absorbing them resulted in an inadequate placement. The basic price of live chicken on the farm remained stable at USD 1.02/kg, but negotiations were carried out below this value. EPAGRI indicates that, on May 18th, in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil, the value of live chicken was quoted at USD 0.98/kg, an increase of 11.9%, while in Parana, the price of live chicken was USD 0.95, unchanged. In São Paulo, the wholesale price of chicken was quoted at USD 1.26/kg, a drop of 1.26%. CEPEA informed that the price of frozen chicken dropped by 2.21% to USD 1.33/kg, while chilled chicken fell by 1.47% to USD 1.34/kg.

According to MIDAGRI, the price of Peruvian chicken continues to decline, considering that in April 2023, wholesale chicken prices exceeded USD 2.44/kg, and since the end of the month there has been a downward trend to below USD 2.17/kg. Specifically, on May 19th, in Metropolitan Lima in Peru, live chicken went for USD 2.16/kg, a reduction of 12.6% compared to the highest value registered on April 19th at USD 2.48/kg. The average price of eviscerated chicken (retail) followed the same downward trend registered by the wholesale price, reaching USD 3.26/kg on May 17, a decrease of 9.2 % compared to its maximum peak on April 21st of USD 3.59/kg. Lastly, on May 13th, Indonesia registered its first shipment of live chickens to Singapore, amounting to 23.04K heads (41.47MT). According to the Indonesian Trade Attache, in 2022, Singapore imports of live, frozen, and processed chicken products were estimated at 228K MT, mostly sourced from Brazil (51%), Malaysia (21%), the US (11%), and other countries (14%).