W22: Maize (Corn) Update

In W22 in the maize (corn) landscape, the European Commission (EC) forecasts the 2023/24 corn harvest to reach 64.1 million mt, down by 300 thousand mt compared to the April estimate. The EC also revised downward 2023/24 EU maize ending stocks to 18.9 million mt. Furthermore, the EC adjusted upwards the EU maize import estimate in the 2022/23 season from 24 million mt projected in April 2023 to 24.5 million mt, while maintaining the 2023/24 EU maize import forecast at 17 million mt. As of May 27th, 2022/23 EU maize exports totaled 24.34 million mt, up 61% YoY when 15.14 million mt was registered. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimates the area cultivated with maize in 2023 to reach 1.3 million ha, 100 thousand ha less than in 2022, and the lowest in three decades. A general decline is expected in France, especially in Pays de la Loire (-17%) and in Occitania (-11%) except in Brittany, where the areas of corn are expected to increase slightly. The French fodder maize area is estimated at 1.2 million ha, down 4.2% YoY. The decline is attributed to unfavorable climatic conditions, coupled with falling corn prices amidst rising fertilizer and fuel prices. Also, French corn production has been falling sharply for two years, particularly in favor of sunflowers.

The USDA reports that as of May 28th, US corn planting reached 92% of the planned area, up compared to the 5-year average of 84%, with 72% of the crop emerging, ahead compared to 63% on average. The first USDA rating of 2023 indicates that 69% of the US corn crop was in good to excellent condition, down 4% YoY. Additionally, the USDA outlines that as of the week ending May 25th, US corn export inspections reached 1.313 million mt, down 12.87 thousand mt WoW and 98.84 thousand mt YoY, with shipments mainly destined for China and Japan. As MY 2022/23 comes to an end, US corn export inspection totals 28.691 million mt, down compared to 42.308 million mt in 2021/22. Furthermore, according to the USDA, during the week ending May 25th, the US corn export cancellations from the 2022/23 harvest reached 186.7 thousand mt. Despite this, sales were still strong, albeit below the average of the previous four weeks. US corn sales were mainly destined for Mexico (172.4 thousand mt), Colombia (76.5 thousand mt), Saudi Arabia (71.6 thousand mt), China (70.8 thousand mt), and Japan (69. 5 thousand mt), offsetting cancellations made by undisclosed destinations (286.9 thousand mt), Honduras (13.8 thousand mt), El Salvador (6.9 thousand mt), Panama (4.7 thousand mt), and Canada (400 mt).

AgRural reports that as of May 25th, the 2023 second corn crop harvest in the Center-South of Brazil reached 0.8% of the estimated area, down compared to 1.2% achieved in the same period in 2022. Corn harvesting is still concentrated in Mato Grosso, where the rhythm is a little slower than a year ago. AgRural also adjusted upwards 2022/23 Brazilian corn production from an estimated 125.1 million mt in April 2023 to 127.4 million mt. The upward adjustment is mainly due to the increase from the off-season, whose estimated production rose from 95.9 million mt to 97.9 million mt. SAFRAS and Mercado indicate that as of May 26th, the 2022/23 Brazilian summer corn crop harvest reached 96.2% of the estimated area of 4.188 million ha, up compared to 94.8% harvested in the same period in 2021/22, but below the 5-year average of 98.5%. Corn harvesting was completed in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Mato Grosso. In the Goiás/Federal District, the corn harvest reached 99.1% and, in Minas Gerais clocked 86.8%. Lastly, according to CONAB, the 2023 Brazilian safrinha corn harvesting as of May 27th reached 0.4% of the planned area, behind the 0.6% achieved in the same period in 2022, with activities concentrated in the states of Mato Grosso and Paraná. CONAB also clarifies that in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul there is a need for additional rainfall to maintain the potential of grain yields, and in the state of Goiás, corn crops have just begun to ripen.