In W22 in the rice landscape, India is expected to export around 750 thousand mt of broken rice to Indonesia (200 thousand mt), Senegal (500 thousand mt), and Gambia (50 thousand mt). The Indian Department of Food and public distribution allowed the rice export on a request by the external affairs ministry since India had banned wheat and broken rice shipments and imposed a 20% export duty on non-basmati rice in September 2022. So far in the Kharif 2022/23 season, FCI has procured 77.2mt of paddy rice and 3.2mt of paddy rice in the current 2023/24 rabi season against an estimated target of 15.7mt. The USDA indicates that as of the week ending May 25th, US rice export sales totaled 16.8 thousand mt, down 45% WoW and 11% compared to the 4-week average, with shipments mainly destined for Venezuela (5.5 thousand mt) and Honduras (5 thousand mt). So far in the 2022/23 season, US rice exports total 1.878 million mt, down compared to 2.708 registered in 2021/22. Furthermore, the USDA indicates that as of May 28th, 95% of US rice had been planted, and 83% had emerged, both faster than normal for this time of year. Also, 72% of US rice was rated good to excellent, down 1% WoW.
In May 2023, Vietnamese rice exports were estimated at 1 million mt, valued at USD 489 million. In the first five months of 2023, Vietnam’s rice exports amounted to nearly 3.9 million mt, worth USD 2.02 billion, up 40.8% in volume and 49% in value compared to the same period in 2022, with the average export price estimated at USD 517/mt, up 5.8% YoY. In the first four months of 2023, Vietnamese rice shipments were mainly destined for the Philippines, with a market share of 42.4%, reaching 1.29 million mt, valued at USD 647.5 million, an increase of 40.6% YoY in volume and 53.4% YoY in value. Also, Indonesia was the destination with the strongest increase in Vietnamese export value, up 26.3 times, while Ivory Coast had the largest decrease in rice export value, down 49.8%.
Lastly, the Brazilian rice market ended W4 of May 2023 with mixed fluctuations in prices due to the slow pace of sales. SAFRAS and Mercado indicate that Brazilian rice growers are waiting for better conditions before making sales and only specific lots have been negotiated. Meanwhile, Brazilian rice industries are more focused on looking for new spaces in retail than acquiring raw materials. Also, the strong rise of the US Dollar against the Brazilian Real on May 25th, operating above the USD 1.02 level for the first time since the beginning of May 2023, brought new expectations for the advancement of the rice export business. The average price of a 50k bag of rice in Rio Grande do Sul (58/62% of whole grains and payment in cash), the main national benchmark, closed on May 25th quoted at USD 17.01, a decrease of 1.21% WoW, and 4.69% MoM, but an increase of 17.26% YoY. Regarding the rice harvest of the new crop in Rio Grande do Sul, Emater/RS reports that the activities are technically finished and the estimated average productivity is 7,744kg/ha.