In W27 in the sugar landscape, sugar futures for the Oct-23 contract experienced fluctuations during the week on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). On Wednesday, July 5, sugar futures closed with an increase of 0.90% on the NYSE to 23.53 cents/lb, benefiting from significant support from the financial market. However, on Thursday, July 6, sugar futures significantly dropped 1.19% to 23.25 cents/lb as the market faced pressure from profit-taking movements and financial fluctuations, including a drop in oil prices and exchange rates. On Friday, July 7, the sugar futures for Oct-23 delivery rebounded with a 1.20% increase to 23.53 cents/lb due to adjustments in positions compared to the previous day and following the oscillations of the financial sector.
The European Union (EU) sugar production is projected to increase by over 6% in the 2023/24 season, reaching 15.5 million metric tons (mmt). This rebound is driven by a significant expansion of sugar beet cultivation in Poland, which compensates for declines in France and Germany, the largest producers. Ending stocks are expected to remain tight due to reduced imports and higher exports despite the production increase. EU sugar imports for the October-September 2023/24 season are forecasted to decline to 2.65 mmt, down from 3.15 mmt in the 2022/23 season but still higher than the 2.28 mmt in the 2021/22 season. EU imports from Ukraine surged after the bloc lifted its tariffs. By contrast, EU sugar exports are set to rebound in 2023/24, as the bloc will likely end next season with stocks nearly as tight as this one, at 1.35 mmt from 1.31 mmt. In Russia, as of June 30, 2023, sugar stocks amounted to 1.4 mmt, similar to the previous year's level. The average over-the-counter prices for sugar in Russia remained steady in June, comparable to the prices in May, July, and August of the previous year, at around USD 0.68-0.69/kg including VAT.
Brazil’s 2023/24 sugarcane harvest is expected to reach 641.1 mmt, representing a 6.8% increase compared to the 600.3 mmt harvested and processed in 2022/23. SAFRAS has also raised its estimate for sugarcane crushing in Brazil's Center-South region to 585 mmt, reflecting a growth of 7.34%. Brazil's sugar production is projected to reach 39 mmt in 2023/24, an 18% increase compared to the estimated 33 mmt for 2022/23. In Ecuador, heavy rains have affected the start of the sugar cane harvest on the coast, impacting the three major sugar mills in the region: Valdez, San Carlos, and Agroazucar (La Troncal). These mills account for approximately 80% of the national sugar production. Lastly, in Egypt, sugar prices have experienced new increases, ranging between USD 32.36-64.72/mt from sugar-producing factories. The final consumer price of sugar is expected to exceed USD 0.71-0.74/kg in the coming days. The country has a sufficient sugar supply, while demand has slowed down.
