1. Weekly News

India

India's Apple Harvest Faces Significant Challenges Despite Stable Production Forecast

India's horticulture department predicts a stable production of 28.1 million apple boxes across 115 thousand hectares (ha), similar to last year, despite adverse weather conditions. The lack of snowfall in winter, drought-like conditions in February, and prolonged wet spells in March and May have negatively impacted apple cultivation in India. A horticulture expert explains that unfavorable weather patterns, including insufficient snowfall, untimely rain, hailstorms during flowering, and drought, adversely affected apple yields. Moreover, the weather in 2024 has also caused up to 70% of crop losses for apple growers without anti-hail nets.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Considers Temporary Ban on Apple Imports to Support Domestic Producers

In response to Kazakhstan's abundant fruit harvest in 2024, there is a proposal for a temporary ban on apple imports to prioritize the sale of domestically grown produce. Scheduled from Aug-24 to Dec-24, the proposed measure aims to benefit local orchardists and the national economy. Despite a 6% year-on-year (YoY) decrease in apple production, Kazakh apple exports have increased, partly due to the smuggling of gardening products into Kazakhstan, which has been legalized as domestic. While government support has helped the industry, it could unintentionally disadvantage local producers while favoring foreign growers. If the government doesn't take action, the situation could worsen further.

Russia

Russian Apple Harvest Expected to Increase Despite Frosts, Supported by Intensive Gardens and Agricultural Investments

Despite recurrent frosts in many regions, the President of the Russian Gardeners Association predicts a gross harvest increase to 1.79 million tons of apples in 2024. This growth is attributed to the annual expansion of fruit-bearing intensive gardens and a balanced production with a 10% increase in other regions, compensating for a decrease in the Central zone. The most affected areas include Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Tambov, the northern part of Rostov, and Smolensk. The Ministry of Agriculture has invested in gardening development and compensated investors for planting gardens. Although the Bryansk region experienced negative temperatures, leading to an expected 50% decrease in the planned harvest for the Idared and Red Chief varieties, the National Union of Agricultural Insurers is encouraging horticultural regions to insure their gardens. They are also assisting with calculations and making changes to the order regarding the insured value and the amount of loss of crops, including perennial fruit crops.

South Korea

Significant Drop in 'Summer King' Apple Prices in South Korea Amid Expected Production Surge

The domestic variety 'Summer King' began shipping from the Daegu-Gyeongbuk Apple Apple Agricultural Cooperative Gunwi Agricultural Products Distribution Center (APC). Production is expected to increase significantly in 2024. The delivery price at Gunwi APC has dropped by 50% YoY, though prices are expected to stabilize quickly. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) predicts sufficient apple production, ensuring consumers can enjoy apples at a reasonable price.

Ukraine

Ukrainian Apple Exports Rise Amid Geopolitical Factors

During the 2023/24 season, Ukraine exported 43 thousand tons of apples, marking an increase of 8 thousand tons compared to the previous year. From Jan-24 to Apr-24 alone, apple exports totaled nearly 24 thousand tons, achieving an average price of USD 556 per ton. The primary markets for Ukrainian apples are the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Uzbekistan, collectively contributing 60% to revenue. The rise in average prices is due to geopolitical factors rather than market conditions.

Ukrainian Apples Gain Edge Over Regional Competitors Despite Export Challenges

According to the USPA Fruit, Ukrainian apple producers typically offer higher quality than their main competitors from Poland, Moldova, and Serbia. Moreover, Ukrainian products are often preferred over those from the listed countries, although not all Ukrainian manufacturers are engaged in exports. While Ukraine previously led in exporting to various markets, Serbia and Moldova are expanding their distribution reach. However, Poland maintains a substantial advantage due to its stronger presence in Southeast Asia and Latin America.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Apple Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Apple Pricing Important Exporters (W28 2023 to W28 2024)

Italy

Apple prices in Italy remained stable at USD 1.89 per kilogram (kg) in W28. Moreover, there is a 2.94% month-on-month (MoM) increase but a 17.89% YoY decrease. The stability in weekly prices indicates a balanced supply and demand within the domestic market. The MoM increase reflects steady domestic sales amidst export restrictions and economic challenges. However, the significant YoY decrease highlights the impact of higher prices in the previous year and changing market dynamics. Efforts to introduce new apple varieties, like Lilibet from Sanifrutta, aim to enhance sustainability and production efficiency in the sector, potentially influencing future price trends.

United States

In W28, apple prices in the US remained steady at USD 1.56/kg since W22, with a slight increase of 1.79% YoY. This stability indicates consistent domestic demand during the US apple off-season, despite earlier fluctuations. The steady prices are supported by optimistic production forecasts and strong consumer preference for premium varieties like Envy, which help maintain market balance.

Chile

In W28, apple prices in Chile decreased by 6.61% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.21/kg. However, there is a 1.94% MoM increase but a 3.08% YoY decrease. The weekly price drop reflects a recent easing in local demand after a surge in W27, alongside adjustments in supply dynamics. The slight monthly increase indicates ongoing adjustments in the market, while the yearly decrease highlights broader market trends and fluctuations in harvest conditions during the peak season from March to October. These variations are typical of the agricultural market's seasonal volatility.

France

In France, apple prices remained stable at USD 1.53/kg in W28, indicating a consistent balance between supply and demand. The 7.69% MoM increase reflects short-term market adjustments, possibly due to seasonal shifts or localized demand spikes. Meanwhile, the 2.92% YoY decrease indicates a comparison to higher prices observed in the previous year, suggesting a return to more typical pricing levels. These movements underscore the ongoing market dynamics in the apple sector, where seasonal factors and economic conditions play crucial roles in price fluctuations.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Promote 'Summer King' Apples for Increased Production in 2024

The MAFRA should encourage the adoption and promotion of the domestic apple variety 'Summer King' from the Gunwi Agricultural Products Distribution Center to boost production in 2024. Despite the drop in delivery prices at Gunwi APC, prompt actions are needed to ensure that apple prices stabilize quickly, benefiting producers and consumers. MAFRA should continue to monitor and support sufficient apple production to maintain affordable prices.

Enhance Weather Resilience in Apple Cultivation

India's horticulture department should collaborate with apple growers to implement advanced weather resilience measures to mitigate the impact of adverse conditions. This includes subsidizing anti-hail nets and promoting drought-resistant apple varieties. Additionally, conducting regular training sessions on innovative cultivation practices will help farmers adapt to changing climate patterns and maintain stable production levels.

Sources: Tridge, Fsvps, Thenewshimachal, Pressherald, Eastfruit, AgroInvestor, Nongmin, Agrotimes, Freshplaza