1. Weekly News

Canada

P.E.I. Farming Season Ahead by Two Weeks

The 2024 farming season in Canada's Prince Edward Island (P.E.I.) is progressing two weeks ahead of schedule in W33 thanks to favorable weather conditions, raising hopes for a strong crop. Although a few farmers have already begun harvesting, most will start in late Sept-24 to early Oct-24. The fields are currently bulking, and recent dry weather highlights the critical need for rain, with the remnants of hurricane Debbie expected to provide essential moisture.

Russia

Russia's Potato Harvest Begins with Mixed Results Amid High Temperatures and Increased Costs

Mass potato harvesting has begun in Russia, particularly in the Central and Volga regions, focusing on early varieties. Despite a promising start with an average yield of 1 metric ton (mt) per hectare (ha) higher than in 2023, the overall harvest is expected to be lower, with the Ministry of Agriculture forecasting 7.2 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024 compared to last year's 8.6 mmt. So far, potatoes have been harvested from 21 thousand ha, yielding 606 thousand mt, which is 80 thousand mt more than last year. However, abnormally high temperatures in several regions, including Rostov and Astrakhan, have negatively impacted the crop, inhibiting potato growth and increasing production costs due to the need for more irrigation and night harvesting. The extreme heat has even led to potatoes "baking" in the soil, making them unsuitable for storage or sale.

Turkey

Harvest Begins for Winter Agria Potatoes in Turkey's Şuhut District with Good Yields and Low Prices

The harvest for winter Agria Cinci potatoes has commenced in the Şuhut district of Afyonkarahisar, a critical potato production region in Turkey. In 2024, potatoes were planted across 4 thousand ha, with 1.5 thousand ha under contract. The price of Agria potatoes ranges between USD 0.15 and 0.24 per kilogram (kg), with a reported good yield. Potato producers expressed satisfaction with the productive year, noting that the harvest is disaster-free and yielding well. Moreover, ongoing shipments of around 7 to 8 mt daily are expected to continue for approximately 45 days while calling for increased exports to boost prices.

Ukraine

Ukraine's Shift to Domestic Potato Varieties Due to Climate Adaptation and Cost Benefits

During the Potato Day event at Desna, the Institute of Potato Breeding of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine emphasized that Ukrainian potato varieties have been developed with climate change in mind, making them well-suited to conditions with limited moisture and resistant to various pests and diseases. While Ukrainian farmers previously favored potato varieties from Germany, the Netherlands, France, and Denmark, there has been a renewed interest in domestic varieties over the past two years. The adaptability of Ukrainian varieties to local climatic conditions and economic factors drives this shift. The high logistics costs have pushed the price of European seed materials to as much as USD 1.21/kg, whereas Ukrainian seeds are more affordable, priced between USD 0.48 and 0.60/kg. This cost difference makes domestic varieties more economically viable for farmers since seed costs represent a significant portion of potato production expenses. Meanwhile, potato prices in Ukraine have continued to rise, reaching a five-season high.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Potato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Potato Pricing Important Exporters (W33 2023 to W33 2024)

France

In W33, the wholesale price of French potatoes rose by 1.06% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.95/kg from USD 0.94/kg in W32 while experiencing a month-on-month (MoM) decrease of 3.06%. The MoM decline is due to a projected 12% increase in production for 2024, which is expected to add around 830 thousand mt compared to the 2023 harvest. This increase is driven by advancements in French potato cultivation and heightened demand from the potato processing industry, mainly due to new French fry factories established near the northern French port. However, rising temperatures in France make domestic potato cultivation more challenging, although demand continues to grow.

Germany

In W33, the wholesale price of German potatoes surged by 12.33% WoW to USD 0.82/kg from USD 0.73/kg. This increase is attributed to wet weather disrupting harvesting in some regions, causing rot and reducing supply. Despite this recent surge, prices have dropped by 22.64% month-on-month (MoM) and 19.74% YoY. According to potato experts, the decline is due to a lack of demand in the potato market, with chip factories receiving sufficient supply under existing agreements and not requiring additional purchases.

Pakistan

Pakistan's wholesale potato prices rose 7.41% WoW and MoM to USD 0.29/kg in W33, a significant 40.28% YoY increase. The YoY rise is mainly due to the high inflation rate, which reached 17.96% in W32 due to increased taxes and electricity prices as outlined in the federal budget. Prices are expected to continue to rise in the coming weeks.

Egypt

In W33, Egypt's wholesale potato prices surged by 9.37% WoW and 27.15% YoY to USD 0.35/kg. This increase is due to a notable reduction in yield, with production dropping from 14 to 16 mt per acre in 2023 to 9 to 12 mt per acre in 2024. Yields from local leftover seeds have decreased to about 7 to 10 mt per acre, leading to a 35 to 40% YoY reduction in market supply. With Egypt producing approximately 7 mmt of potatoes annually, the strategic importance of potatoes in the market is highlighted, particularly as rising prices of meat, poultry, fish, and other commodities drive increased demand for potatoes.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Market Position and Export Strategy for Egyptian Potatoes

Egypt should capitalize on its potato price increase by developing a strategic export plan. With a significant reduction in yield and rising domestic prices, Egypt has an opportunity to strengthen its position in international markets where potato demand is growing. Targeting neighboring and high-demand markets such as the Middle East and North Africa could absorb the reduced local supply and generate revenue. To achieve this, Egypt should invest in marketing campaigns highlighting the quality of its potatoes, streamline export processes to improve efficiency and establish trade partnerships to facilitate entry into new markets. Additionally, exploring the development of value-added potato products could further enhance Egypt's market appeal and offset domestic price pressures.

Mitigate Heat Impact in Russia

Russia should focus on immediate and long-term strategies to mitigate the impact of high temperatures on potato production. Financial support for farmers to implement advanced irrigation systems and cooling technologies is crucial to managing the effects of extreme heat. Investing in research and development of heat-resistant potato varieties, such as the Spunta and Desiree varieties, can help future-proof the industry. These varieties have shown resilience to high temperatures and can help maintain yields under challenging conditions. Establishing agricultural extension services to provide farmers with practical advice on managing extreme weather, including optimizing irrigation and soil management techniques, will further enhance their ability to cope with heat stress. These combined measures will help stabilize potato production and pricing, ensuring a more reliable supply for domestic and export markets.

Expand Export Opportunities for Turkey

Turkey should leverage its successful Agria potato harvest by expanding export opportunities to capitalize on the favorable conditions. The increasing demand for high-quality potatoes can be achieved by forging new trade agreements with emerging markets such as East Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Enhancing promotional efforts to attract international buyers through targeted marketing campaigns and participation in global trade shows will further boost exports. Additionally, developing value-added potato products, such as frozen fries and processed potato flakes, and improving the country's branding in the global market will help Turkey stand out. Optimizing logistics and supply chain management is essential to ensure efficient delivery and meet export demands. Establishing direct shipping routes and investing in cold storage facilities will stabilize prices and increase revenue for Turkish potato producers.

Sources: Tridge, Saltwire, Agri Investor, Iha, Farmer.pl, Landlord, Fresh Plaza