1. Weekly News

Iraq

Kurdistan's First Potato Export to South Africa Begins

On October 10, 2024, Iraq's Kurdistan Region initiated the export of 25 metric tons (mt) of potatoes to South Africa through the Ibrahim Khalil International Border Crossing Gate, marking the first phase of a more significant agreement to export 100 mt. This reflects the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) efforts to boost the international presence of local agricultural products. Meanwhile, Kurdistan is facing obstacles in its plans to export 5 thousand mt of potatoes to Jordan as the Iraqi Federal Government has blocked the request despite Jordan's formal interest. Despite this setback, Kurdistan continues to explore export opportunities in various markets. Alongside South Africa and Jordan, Kurdistan has successfully exported potatoes to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and parts of Western Kurdistan, including Qamishlo and Hasakah.

Poland

Poland's Potato Harvest Forecast to Reach 5.8 MMT in 2024

Improved weather conditions since mid-May-24 accelerated potato growth in many regions in Poland. However, uneven rainfall distribution and high temperatures in some areas have led to varied plantation conditions. As a result, the yield potential will not be fully realized, with yields expected to differ significantly across regions. The overall quality of tubers from this year's harvest is anticipated to be average. A slight increase in the area under potato cultivation, estimated at around 200 thousand hectares (ha), has been driven by favorable market conditions last season and exceptionally high edible potato prices. Yield is forecasted at 30.1 mt/ha, which is about 2% higher year-on-year (YoY). The total potato harvest in 2024 is projected at approximately 5.8 million metric tons (mmt), marking a 5% YoY increase.

Türkiye

Sivas Set to Produce 700 Thousand MT of Potatoes in 2024

Sivas, Türkiye's leading province in table and seed potato production, is projected to produce around 700 thousand mt of potatoes by 2024. This forecast was emphasized during the Potato Harvest Field Day in Aşağı Yıldızlı village, attended by vital agricultural leaders such as the Sivas Provincial Director of Agriculture and the President of the Sivas Chamber of Agriculture. Certified, disease-free seeds have boosted potato production globally and in Türkiye. Therefore, the success of high-yielding varieties depends heavily on seed quality, making it the most critical factor in achieving optimal yields.

Ukraine

Potato Prices Surged in Ukraine Due to Supply Shortage

Ukrainian potato prices have been rising due to a shortage of high-quality produce caused by hot and dry summer weather. Experts note that while some retail chains have resorted to importing quality potatoes, Ukrainian potatoes still dominate local markets following the harvest season. Both industrial producers and households in potato-growing regions have supplied their products, increasing the availability of domestic potatoes. Imports account for a small portion of the market, typically less than 5% or around 250 to 300 thousand mt annually. As of October 9, 2024, potato prices reached USD 0.65 per kilogram (kg), an 8% increase since the end of Aug-24.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Potato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Potato Pricing Important Exporters (W42 2023 to W42 2024)

France

In W42, wholesale prices for French potatoes fell by 2.63% week-on-week (WoW) and 57.95% month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.37/kg. This decline is due to challenges faced during the 2024/25 potato campaign, including unfavorable weather conditions and increased pressure from plant diseases, notably mildew. Despite these issues, the National Union of Potato Producers (UNPT) remains optimistic about the market, anticipating a balanced production and market value outlook. France is poised for a record potato harvest, with a 16% YoY increase in the cultivated area, totaling 178,190 ha in 2024. This expansion, especially in the northwestern regions, has been driven by robust potato prices and growing demand from chip factories, reinforcing France's position as a critical player in the global potato market this season.

Germany

In W42, the wholesale price of German potatoes rose by 10.53% WoW and 6.78% MoM, reaching USD 0.63/kg. This is due to a robust harvest of approximately 12.7 mmt, representing a 9% rise from the previous year and 17% above the average. Driven by a 9% expansion in potato planting areas, this abundant yield is expected to push prices down from current highs. While challenges such as late diseases related to weather conditions persist, the harvest size is substantially larger than last year. However, potato consumption in Germany has experienced a notable decline, with a 28% drop since 1990, as consumer preferences have shifted towards rice and pasta.

Pakistan

Pakistan's wholesale potato prices remained stable in both WoW and MoM in W42 but saw a significant YoY increase of 9.59%, reaching USD 0.28/kg. This price surge is due to multiple factors, including rising input costs from a 25% reduction in seed availability due to currency depreciation, which has heightened production expenses. Additionally, increased export demand, particularly from regional markets such as Afghanistan and the Middle East, puts additional pressure on domestic prices. Logistical challenges have also led to localized supply shortages, further contributing to the upward pressure on prices.

Egypt

In W42, Egypt's wholesale potato prices surged to USD 0.33/kg, increasing by 10% WoW and 3.13% MoM, driven by a significant demand-supply imbalance exacerbated by climate change and a prolonged shortage of United States (US) dollars that hindered the import of essential potato seeds. Economic challenges, including high inflation and currency depreciation, have intensified the situation, reducing yields ranging from 14 and 16 mt per acre in 2023 to 9 and 12 mt per acre in 2024. Local leftover seeds have also underperformed, yielding only 7 to 10 mt per acre and contributing to a 35 to 40% decrease in market supply. Egypt's Chambers of Commerce suggests that the Ministry of Agriculture could stabilize prices by releasing government stock at cost prices, potentially reducing prices by 25% to 30%.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Quality and Branding Initiatives

Kurdistani potato producers should invest in quality control and branding initiatives as premium products by implementing stringent quality assurance measures, such as certification programs for disease-free seeds and promoting sustainable farming practices among local producers. Furthermore, enhancing the supply chain through better storage and transportation methods will ensure that the potatoes reach their destinations in optimal condition. Strong branding efforts highlighting unique aspects of Kurdistani potatoes, such as organic farming or traditional cultivation methods, can further appeal to health-conscious consumers and niche markets. By focusing on quality and branding, Kurdistan can improve marketability and command higher prices, making its products more competitive internationally.

Strengthen Seed Quality Programs

To support the anticipated growth in potato production, Türkiye should strengthen seed quality programs by implementing stringent certification processes for seed suppliers to ensure access to high-quality, disease-free seeds. Moreover, educational programs aimed at farmers should promote best practices for seed selection and planting techniques. Collaborating with agricultural research institutions can also facilitate the development of improved potato varieties that withstand local climatic challenges. Türkiye can maximize its potato production potential by prioritizing seed quality and farmer education and remain competitive in domestic and export markets.

Enhance Domestic Supply Management

Ukraine should enhance domestic supply management to address rising potato prices. This can be achieved by encouraging localized production through support programs for smallholder farmers and offering financial incentives to expand planting areas and improve agricultural practices. Investing in community storage facilities will help reduce post-harvest losses while establishing a centralized market information system that can provide real-time data on supply and demand to stabilize prices. By implementing these strategies, Ukraine can effectively manage its potato supply, ensuring food security and empowering local farmers amidst rising market challenges.

Sources: Agrofocus Africa, Iha, Gospodarz, Sinor, Freshproducemea, FreshPlaza