Australian avocado farmers are navigating a challenging domestic market with low prices and surplus production, prompting a strategic pivot towards exports for better returns. Over the past three years, export volumes have surged by 600%, with recent expansions into markets like India and ongoing efforts to enter China. While domestic prices have dropped to as low as USD 1 per avocado, pushing some growers in regions like Far North Queensland to remove older trees, the industry is projected to increase production in the coming years. Despite the growth in exports, challenges with price volatility and fluctuating supply remain a concern for the industry.
Chile will host the Global Avocado Summit 2024 on November 21, 2024, in Santiago, gathering industry leaders, farmers, exporters, and marketers worldwide. The Chilean Avocado Committee and Yentzen Group will organize the summit, which will address primary challenges and opportunities in the avocado industry, including rising global consumption, sustainability, and water scarcity. Moreover, the discussions will focus on improving irrigation technologies, developing advanced marketing strategies, and aligning with global sustainability goals. Hass Avocado Board and the World Avocado Organization experts will highlight market trends in North America and Europe, emphasizing collaboration among major producers like Mexico and Peru to enhance the industry's global position.
French authorities intercepted a shipment of South African Hass avocados after the European Commission (EC)'s rapid alert system detected pesticide residues far exceeding legal limits. The avocados contained Prochloraz, a pesticide banned in the European Union (EU) since 2022 due to health risks, at levels 20 times above the maximum allowed. Additionally, the authorities also found elevated amounts of Azoxystrobin. This incident, alongside earlier issues with South African citrus exports, prompted the Valencian Association of Farmers - Agrarian Association of Young Farmers (AVA-ASAJA) to criticize South Africa's non-compliance with EU phytosanitary standards and demand stricter import controls while urging consumers to support European produce for higher food safety.
Through increased cooperation with the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce, Michoacán, Mexico's governor, is strengthening efforts to enhance agricultural exports, particularly avocados, lemons, and berries. In discussions with the Mexican ambassador to Sweden and chamber officials, the governor emphasized Michoacán's key role in agricultural exports. The state contributes nearly one-third of Mexico's total export value, including USD 7 billion annually from products like avocados. The governor also highlighted initiatives like the Guardian Forest satellite system to combat deforestation and promote voluntary avocado certification to curb illegal exports. Additionally, he emphasized the state's clean energy production and strategic advantages, including industrial growth opportunities at the Lázaro Cárdenas port.
Morocco's Hass avocado campaign has had a challenging start this 2024/25 season, with prices dropping by 10 to 15% year-on-year (YoY). The industry faces stiff competition from major producers like Colombia, Kenya, South Africa, and soon Spain and Portugal, making it difficult for Moroccan exports to gain market share. An early and poorly coordinated start to the season, driven by impatient growers and inflated volume expectations, has weakened the market position. Despite regulatory interventions to set a standardized campaign date, the initial missteps have created a challenging commercial outlook, leaving industry players cautious as the season progresses.
Peru, now the world's second-largest avocado exporter, remains a key player in global markets, especially in Europe. However, the industry faces hurdles such as adverse weather, including Cyclone Yaku in 2023, which affected fruit quality and yields, particularly in the north. Despite these issues, Peru has over 75 thousand hectares (ha) of Hass avocado cultivation and continues to innovate in sustainability practices like soil management. Concerns over cadmium contamination threaten access to the European market, which receives 60% of exports. While demand from the United States (US) and China has declined, markets in Spain and Chile show growth. Peru also expands its export strategy to new markets, including Australia, New Zealand, and India.
In Mexico, avocado prices increased slightly by 0.35% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 2.83/kg in W44, marking a 7.20% YoY growth. This is due to ongoing strong consumer demand, particularly for certified avocados meeting the Pro-Forest standards, which continue to support higher prices. Additionally, efforts to strengthen agricultural exports from Michoacán, particularly avocados, are helping maintain price stability. However, month-on-month (MoM) prices declined significantly by 18.68% due to the seasonal oversupply, as favorable growing conditions led to a peak in production, contributing to a temporary market adjustment. Despite this, the long-term outlook for avocado prices remains positive due to the growing emphasis on certification and sustainable practices in the industry.
Peru's avocado prices rose by 2.75% WoW to USD 1.12/kg in W44, reflecting a 9.80% MoM increase due to improved market conditions and the strategic timing of harvests, leading to better quality and yield optimization ahead of the 2025 season. This price rise also reflects continued demand from European markets, where Peruvian avocados remain sought after. However, YoY prices decreased significantly by 33.33% due to a 9% decrease in export volumes compared to last year and intensified competition from Mexican avocados in primary markets like the US. Additionally, the overall pricing pressure stems from concerns over cadmium contamination and the effects of adverse weather events like Cyclone Yaku.
In W44, avocado prices in Spain fell by 12.84% WoW, showing a 40.43% MoM decrease and a 13.85% YoY decline due to the continued oversupply in the market driven by the early-season arrival of green-skinned varieties, such as the Zutano avocado. The market remains saturated with these avocados, putting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, increased competition from imports and ongoing water shortages in Spain have affected yield quality and compounded the pricing decline. As a result, the market is experiencing significant price reductions despite the early seasonal influx.
Avocado prices in Chile dropped by 2.64% WoW to USD 3.32/kg in W44, with a 24.55% MoM decline due to continued pressure from reduced export demand, as market conditions stabilized following last week's peak pricing. Increased competition from Colombian avocados in European markets has controlled prices, forcing Chilean exporters to adjust their strategies accordingly. However, YoY prices increased by 11.04% due to sustained high export demand, limited supply from other Southern Hemisphere producers, and continued improvements in export infrastructure, supporting Chile's position in the global avocado market despite recent challenges.
Moroccan avocado exporters should focus on targeted marketing campaigns such as showcasing the fruit's superior taste, sustainable farming practices, and unique origin through digital platforms, influencer partnerships, and in-store promotions. Highlighting the quality control processes and traceability of the avocados, as well as emphasizing the health benefits, can help position Moroccan avocados as a premium choice in international markets.
Australian avocado farmers should strengthen relationships with emerging export markets like India and China by negotiating long-term contracts and exploring new distribution channels. By diversifying their export portfolio and focusing on premium markets, growers can reduce their reliance on the volatile domestic market. Export-focused growers should also collaborate with industry stakeholders to monitor global pricing trends and secure strategic partnerships to maintain consistent revenue streams despite fluctuations in supply.
South African avocado exporters should strengthen their internal quality control procedures to prevent contamination from banned pesticides by working with accredited laboratories for routine testing before shipment. Exporters should implement stricter monitoring protocols and ensure compliance with EU phytosanitary standards to avoid future interceptions. Additionally, industry leaders should invest in educating farmers about safe pesticide use and proper residue management to enhance product safety and protect market access.
Sources: Tridge, ABC News, ECOMAC, Freshplaza, Fruitnet, Kenyans, MXfruit, Portaldelcampo