1. Weekly News

Argentina

Argentina's Soybean Sown Area Set to Reach 17.8 Million Ha

According to forecasts from the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries of Argentina (SAGyP), the country's soybean sown area is expected to rise to 17.8 million hectares (ha) in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY), marking a 7.8% increase from the previous season's 16.6 million ha. This would be the highest soybean acreage in Argentina in the last six years. Improved soil moisture levels and an expected reduction in corn acreage drive the growth. Soybean planting has accelerated following the recent rainfall, although farmers in drier regions are waiting for additional rain to resume sowing. By W48, Argentina planted 36% of the areas, reflecting a 3% weekly increase.

Brazil

Brazil’s 2024/25 Soybean Planting Reached 86%

As of November 28, Brazil's 2024/25 soybean planting reached 86% of the estimated area, up from 80% the previous week and up from 74% during the same period last year. Soybean sowing has progressed smoothly across most regions, though concerns remain in Western Paraná and Southern Mato Grosso do Sul due to recent dry conditions.

Brazil Maintains Lead as Vietnam’s Top Soybean Supplier in 2024

From Jan-24 to Oct-24, Brazil was Vietnam's largest soybean supplier, exporting 1.07 million metric tons (mmt) valued at nearly USD 535.76 million. According to the General Department of Customs, this reflects a 20% year-on-year (YoY) increase in volume and a modest 0.9% YoY rise in value. Brazilian soybeans comprised 59.2% of Vietnam’s total soybean imports by volume and 57.3% by value. During this period, Vietnam’s total soybean imports reached approximately 1.82 mmt, worth USD 935.84 million.

The United States (US) followed as the second-largest supplier, delivering 568,705 metric tons (mt) valued at USD 301.57 million, representing 31.3% of the total import volume. Canada was the third-largest supplier, with 109,005 mt worth USD 64.42 million, accounting for 6% of total imports.

Pakistan

Pakistan Lifts Ban on Genetically Modified Soybean Imports

The Pakistani government has lifted the ban on the import of genetically modified (GM) soybeans. The National Biosafety Centre (NBC), the official body responsible for assessing the potential risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to human health and the environment, has granted import licenses to 39 companies. This decision, which followed months of debate, has been welcomed by the Pakistan Poultry Association (PPA), which emphasized the importance of the move in ensuring a steady supply of protein. The prolonged ban on GM soybean imports had previously disrupted the availability of essential feed for the poultry industry.

Ukraine

Ukraine's 2024 Soybean Harvest Hits Record 6 MMT Due to Expanded Sowing Area

As of November 21, Ukraine harvested 99% of its legume crops, achieving a record soybean harvest of 6.005 mmt. According to the State Committee of Statistics, Ukrainian farmers sowed 2.64 million ha of soybeans in 2024, a substantial increase from 1.81 million ha in 2023. The harvest has been completed on 2.61 million ha, with an average yield of 2.3 mt/ha. In 2024, soybean production surpassed the previous record of 4.778 mmt set in 2023, which exceeded the earlier high of 4.461 mmt recorded in 2018. The significant sown area and yield increase have driven this new production milestone.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (W48 2023 to W48 2024)

Brazil

In W48, Brazilian soybean prices surged by 12.50% week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.45 per kilogram (kg), marking the highest price level of the year. Even though Brazil anticipates a record harvest, prices still rose due to the appreciation of the US dollar. Moreover, increased production costs due to more expensive imported inputs like fertilizers and optimism surrounding grain sales in 2025 have kept prices elevated. The high exchange rate also benefits export revenue, boosting export parity. However, prices have fallen by 4.26% YoY. For the 2024/25 agricultural year, Brazil's soybean production is projected to hit a record 167.7 mmt, up 9.4% YoY, with an expected yield of 3.62 mt/ha from a sown area of 46.4 million ha. The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) also predicts record exports of 104.1 mmt, a 5.9% YoY increase.

United States

In W48, US soybean prices remained stable WoW but saw a 4.26% decline MoM and a 26.23% decrease YoY, settling at USD 0.45/kg. Economic factors drove this decrease, including the new US harvest, a strong US dollar, and rising inflation concerns. The strong dollar has made US soybeans more expensive for international buyers, limiting exports and putting downward pressure on prices. Inflationary uncertainty has sparked speculation about potential changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, which could affect commodity demand. Additionally, potential protectionist measures from the president-elect and the appointment of a former congressman to head the Environmental Protection Agency could challenge the biofuels sector, which is a significant consumer of soybean meal, further complicating the soybean market.

Uruguay

In W48, Uruguay's soybean prices held steady at USD 0.41/kg, supported by several key factors. A robust Uruguayan peso helped mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, maintaining price stability despite global market volatility. Strong global market conditions, notably continued demand from major buyers such as China, played a crucial role in supporting prices, especially in light of supply concerns from other producing regions. Moreover, carryover inventory from 2023 harvests acted as a buffer against potential yield declines, ensuring consistent supply levels despite unpredictable weather conditions.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Markets to Emerging Regions

Brazilian and Argentinian soybean exporters should diversify their export markets beyond traditional buyers like China and Vietnam. Growing demand in regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and South America presents a significant opportunity for expansion. Target countries include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Brazil’s neighboring countries like Paraguay and Uruguay, where soybean consumption is increasing due to population growth and dietary changes. Exporters can diversify by attending international trade fairs, collaborating with private sector partners, and offering region-specific varieties tailored to local preferences. By diversifying their customer base, exporters can reduce reliance on a few large buyers, mitigate risks associated with price volatility, and ensure more stable revenues by tapping into emerging markets with increasing demand.

Optimize Pricing Strategies Based on Currency Movements

Soybean producers and exporters in Brazil should focus on monitoring exchange rate fluctuations, especially with the Brazilian real and US dollar. Given the strong real, exporters can leverage hedging strategies or forward contracts to lock in favorable exchange rates, which will help mitigate currency-related risks. Brazil should also target emerging buyers in regions like Africa (e.g., Kenya and South Africa) and the Middle East (e.g., Türkiye and Iran), which are less sensitive to fluctuations than traditional buyers. By adjusting pricing strategies based on currency movements and targeting emerging markets with strong demand, exporters can protect profit margins and stabilize export revenue despite exchange rate volatility.

Secure Long-term Contracts in New Markets

Ukraine presents a significant opportunity for soybean exporters, especially following its record soybean harvest 2024. As the country has increased its soybean acreage and production, there is a growing demand for quality soybeans, mainly for animal feed and oil extraction. With Pakistan lifting its ban on GM soybean imports and highly competitive Ukrainian soybeans, Ukrainian exporters can secure long-term contracts with regional buyers, particularly in Eastern Europe and parts of Asia, where soybean meal demand is rising. Exporters can ensure a consistent demand pipeline by negotiating long-term supply agreements with animal feed producers, processors, and manufacturers in countries like Türkiye, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Emphasizing the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of GM soybeans, coupled with their nutritional benefits for livestock feed, will help build trust and strong partnerships in these expanding markets. By establishing reliable, long-term supply channels, Ukrainian exporters can strengthen their position in a growing sector and mitigate risks from market volatility and unpredictable weather patterns.

Sources: WTOCenter, Superagronom, Portal Do Agronegócio, Agrotimes, Agroconf