W50 Orange Update: Brazil's Orange Prices Surge Due to Low Supply, Vinh Long Oranges Prices Drop in Vietnam, Meghalaya, India, Exports Oranges to Dubai

Brazilian Orange Market Experiences Price Surge Due to Low Supply and High Demand

The orange market in Brazil is experiencing a price surge, driven by a combination of low supply and strong demand. High temperatures have increased demand, leading to record prices in fresh fruit and processing segments. In the fresh fruit market, pear oranges were traded at USD 11.90/box (BRL 58.90/box) on Nov-23, a 45.9% year-over-year (YoY) increase. This is the highest nominal price in the Center of Advanced Studies in Economics (CEPEA) series and the fourth highest in real terms for November. Prices for pear oranges and late varieties supplied to the processing industry also surged by 60.3% YoY, reaching the highest level in the series. The supply-demand dynamics are expected to keep the supply in Brazil lower than the demand until the end of the harvest season, potentially leading to critical situations if stocks do not recover in the 2023/24 season.

Moreover, the updated forecast for Brazil's 2023/24 orange crop in the citrus belt is 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms (kg) each, reflecting a reduction of 0.7% from the forecast in Sep-23 of 309.34 million boxes. The estimates for different varieties include 58.09 million boxes for Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi, which are expected to remain unchanged. In comparison, 18.51 million boxes for other early-season varieties are expected to remain unchanged. Pera Rio is expected to increase by 1% to 97.62 million boxes, Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha will decrease by 0.03%, and Natal will decrease by 9.8% to 105.20 million boxes.

California Navel Orange Harvest Season Started Late, Led to Record-High Prices Initially

The California Navel orange season faced challenges due to a late start of the harvest season, resulting in a gap in supply and record-high pricing. However, the fruit matured before the Thanksgiving holiday in W47, causing an influx of volume and a plentiful supply. This unexpected influx of fruit has contributed to the growing season's success. Despite the high pricing, it has stabilized and become more realistic. Large-size retail Navel oranges are priced between USD 24 and USD 28 per carton, while smaller food service Navel oranges are in the low USD 20s. Despite the slowdown, holiday purchasing and health awareness month in Jan-24 are expected to increase the demand.

Significant Drop in Vinh Long Orange Prices in Vietnam During W50 Due to Market Factors and Oversupply

The orange prices in the Vĩnh Long Province in Vietnam have dropped significantly. In W50, high-quality Vinh Long oranges price stood at USD 0.12 to 0.16/kg (VND 3,000 to 4,000/kg) and USD 0.062 to 0.16/kg (VND 1,500 to 3,000/kg) for low-quality oranges. Some selling points have even posted signs offering to rescue Vinh Long oranges for USD 0.25/kg (VND 6,000/kg). The decrease in prices is due to various factors, including a reduction in market consumption due to cold weather in the Northern and Central regions, an increase in the orange growing area, and a surplus in supply compared to demand. Farmers are facing heavy losses as the current purchase prices at the garden are below production costs. The province has issued warnings about exceeding the planned orange growing area, emphasizing the need for sustainable management to align with market demand.

Meghalaya's Successful Export of Khasi Mandarin Oranges to Dubai Highlights Agricultural Commitment

In India, Meghalaya's state government successfully exported 20 tons of Khasi mandarin oranges to Dubai on December 11, showcasing its commitment to agricultural exports. The Agriculture & Farmers Welfare Minister emphasized the government's dedication to supporting farmers and fostering agricultural prosperity through strategic export initiatives.

Bangladesh Faces Orange Price Surge Due to US Dollar Shortage and Import Challenges

Orange growers in Bangladesh are witnessing an increase in prices attributed to a shortage of United States (US) dollars, limiting the availability of imported alternatives. In Haribhanga, farmers are now selling their oranges for approximately USD 0.90/kg (BDT 100/kg), an increase from USD 0.63 to 0.72/kg (BDT 70 to 80/kg) in the past. The forex crunch has led to restrictions on opening letters of credit for non-essential items and increased import costs due to the devaluation of the local currency. Importers are now bringing in 60% YoY lower oranges due to a shortage of dollars, leading to higher prices for imported oranges in local markets. The cultivation of oranges in Malta has been ongoing across five districts for the past five to six years, with local varieties mainly differing in size compared to imported ones.