1. Weekly News

Argentina

Recent Rains Improve Corn Conditions in Core Region

Recent rains have significantly improved early corn crop conditions across Argentina's core region, with 85% or 740 thousand hectares (ha) rated as very good to excellent and the remaining 190 thousand ha in good condition. The precipitation has supported robust development, with 45% of crops in panicle formation, 35% in flowering, and 15% in the milky grain stage, benefiting from adequate water availability. In Bombal, technicians report strong crop performance, but in Pergamino, there is cautious optimism as the rains do not fully guarantee that the critical yield-determination period will be risk-free. Meanwhile, in Monte Buey and Corral de Bustos, while overall conditions are favorable, severe hailstorms have caused localized damage, with some fields experiencing losses of up to 80%, highlighting the variability of weather impacts in the region.

Brazil

Brazilian Corn Exports Plunged in Dec-24 Amid Seasonal Slowdown

Brazil's exports of unmilled corn (excluding sweet corn) declined in Dec-24. According to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX), the country exported 2.37 million metric tons (mmt) of corn in the first half of Dec-24, representing only 39.11% of the 6.06 mmt shipped during the same period in 2023. The daily average export volume during the first 10 working days of Dec-24 was 237,126.9 metric tons (mt), marking a 21.8% decrease year-on-year (YoY), which averaged 303,109.8 mt.

USDA Revised Brazil's 2024/25 Corn Production Forecast to 128 MMT

The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) office in Brasília has raised its estimate for Brazil's 2024/25 corn production to 128 mmt, up from the previous 127 mmt, reflecting a 4.9% YoY increase compared to the 122 mmt projected for 2023/24. This adjustment is due to lower production costs and domestic corn prices, fueled by rising international prices and Brazilian real (BRL) depreciation. Additionally, the USDA forecasts an increase in the corn planted area for 2024/25 to 22.3 million ha, a 1.4% growth over 2023/24, supported by reduced costs and optimism regarding favorable weather conditions.

China

China's Corn Imports Dropped 40% YoY Due to Record Domestic Harvest

According to government data, China's corn imports declined nearly 40% YoY to 13.3 mmt by Nov-24, driven by a record domestic harvest that reduced reliance on foreign supply. This year also saw a notable decline in Brazilian corn exports to China, following a record export volume of over 16 mmt in 2023, when China was Brazil's largest buyer. In 2024, China shifted away from being the top destination for Brazilian corn, with Egypt and Vietnam emerging as primary buyers by Oct-24, according to Brazilian government data. This shift reflects China's increased self-sufficiency and changes in global trade flows amid varying production levels and demand dynamics.

Ukraine

Ukraine's Corn Exports Reach 8.3 MMT in 2024/25 Season

From the start of the 2024/25 season until December 18, Ukraine has exported 19.85 mmt of grains and legumes, with 1.48 mmt shipped in Dec-24, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy based on State Customs Service data. This marks an increase from the 16.01 mmt exported last year, which included 2.92 mmt in Dec-24. Corn exports this season have reached 8.3 mmt, with 1.09 mmr exported in Dec-24 alone.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Maize Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Maize Pricing Important Exporters (W51 2023 to W51 2024)

United States

In W51, wholesale maize prices in the United States (US) increased 5.88% week-on-week (WoW), reaching USD 0.18 per kilogram (kg). This increase is due to seasonal demand and market tightening, driven by factors such as rising export demand, particularly from China, and reduced supply chain disruptions. A major importer of corn, China has raised its demand due to the need for feedstock for its livestock and poultry industries. Moreover, seasonal demand typically rises toward the end of the year as stocks begin to deplete, with increased demand for corn for processing into products like ethanol and animal feed. However, prices declined 14.29% YoY from USD 0.21/kg in W51 of 2023. This drop is due to the forecasted record-setting 2024 corn yield, which is expected to surpass 12 mt/ha.

Brazil

In W51, wholesale maize prices in Brazil dropped significantly by 20.83% WoW, 9.52% month-on-month (MoM), and 17.39% YoY. This decline is due to improved weather conditions and increased rainfall, which positively impacted the sowing of summer maize for the 2024/25 season. According to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA), many corn producers, especially in São Paulo, are holding back from selling their stock as they focus on cultivating the upcoming summer harvest. Favorable weather in key production regions, particularly in Southern Brazil, has supported sowing efforts, with planting nearing completion. These conditions have boosted confidence in crop yields, leading producers to hold onto their maize in anticipation of the new season's harvest, resulting in lower market prices.

Argentina

In W51, the wholesale price of Argentine corn remained stable WoW but declined by 5.26% YoY, reaching USD 0.18/kg. This price drop is primarily due to recent rainfall, which has improved crop conditions. Rainfall in Eastern Buenos Aires and Central Argentina has boosted soil moisture levels, supporting corn planting, with light rain expected to continue. Currently, 41.3% of the corn is planted, with 75 to 80% completed in key areas and less than 5% in the northern regions. Argentina's corn sowing plans for the 2024/25 season are optimistic, as the Dalbulus Maidis National Monitoring Network reported reduced leafhopper and disease pressure. The Association of Argentine Cooperatives (ACA) forecasts an increase in the planting of late corn varieties, which, although yielding less than early varieties, can still be profitable with proper management. The Rosario Stock Exchange estimates nearly 8 million ha will be planted, with potential production ranging from 51 to 52 mmt.

Ukraine

Ukrainian wholesale maize prices increased by 5% MoM and 50% YoY in W51, reaching USD 0.21/kg. This price rise is primarily due to dry weather conditions that negatively impacted crop yields, leading the USDA to revise Ukraine's corn harvest forecast downward by 1 mmt to 26.2 mmt. Ukraine faces challenges with a 13% YoY export decline through the Constanta Port, primarily due to its reliance on deep-sea ports for shipping. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food confirmed the completion of the harvest season, with a total grain collection of 53.9 mmt. While reduced exports typically put downward pressure on prices, logistical issues and transportation constraints have increased costs, keeping maize prices elevated.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Improve Transportation Networks for Efficient Export

Logistical challenges in Ukraine remain a significant hurdle for efficient corn exports. Despite having a large corn production capacity, Ukraine faces difficulties due to its dependence on deep-sea ports and inadequate inland transport. Strengthening local infrastructure such as roads, rail systems, and storage facilities will ensure that harvested crops are moved efficiently to ports for export. Moreover, enhancing port infrastructure will help streamline operations and reduce delays during peak harvest periods. For instance, in regions like Ukraine's Black Sea ports or Brazil’s interior corn-producing regions, timely transportation can lead to reduced spoilage, better price realization, and more reliable supply chains for international buyers. Ukraine should prioritize this infrastructure investment to overcome its logistical barriers. Brazil and Argentina, both key exporters of corn, could also benefit from strengthening their transport networks to ensure faster movement from farm to port, enhancing overall export competitiveness.

Monitor and Adjust to Weather Patterns

Weather patterns profoundly affect crop yields, and countries like Argentina and Brazil are particularly vulnerable to changing climatic conditions such as rainfall variability and extreme temperatures. By integrating advanced weather monitoring systems and adopting climate-resilient agricultural practices, these countries can adjust planting schedules, optimize irrigation practices, or select drought-tolerant corn varieties to mitigate the risks of adverse weather. For example, Brazil’s corn producers can adopt strategies based on seasonal rainfall forecasts to decide whether to adjust sowing periods or manage water resources better. Similarly, Argentina’s corn growers, particularly in regions like Buenos Aires, can implement water conservation techniques and consider alternative crop varieties to cope with dry spells or excessive rainfall.

Enhance Export Diversification

Export diversification is crucial for countries like Brazil and Ukraine, which heavily depend on key buyers like China. These countries can explore emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, where demand for corn is growing. For example, Egypt, Vietnam, and other African nations increasingly import corn due to rising domestic consumption driven by population growth. By negotiating trade agreements or establishing new relationships with importers in these regions, these countries can significantly reduce the risks associated with over-reliance on China as domestic production rises and import demand decreases. Diversifying markets can smooth out price fluctuations, provide consistent export demand, and open new revenue streams.

Sources: Tridge, BR Money times, Farmer.pl, Grain Trade, Notícias Agropecuárias, Portal Do Agronegócio, Portal DBO