August 2024 Outlook Report: Fruit

- Key Indicators: The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) averaged USD 5,081.75 in Jul-24, an 18.69% increase from USD 4,281.67 in Jun-24. The World Bank’s fertilizer index rebounded, rising for the second consecutive month, increasing by 10.96% from 108.45 points in May-24 to 129.34 points in Jul-24. The 1.81% MoM increase observed in Jul-24 was primarily driven by a 1.86% rise in urea prices, which more than offset the declines in potassium chloride (-3.02% MoM) and diammonium phosphate (DAP, -0.66% MoM).

- Avocado: In July, the main price drivers for fresh avocados in Mexico include transitioning from old to new season crops, robust United States (US) market demand, and low California domestic supply, with a 28.90% month-over-month (MoM) jump to USD 5.53 per kilogram (kg). Avocado prices in Spain also increased substantially by 17.57% MoM due to solid demand in the European Union (EU) market. On the other hand, Chile's avocado market was relatively stable in July with minimal MoM price fluctuations. In Chile, favorable weather conditions due to La Niña, steady production, and increased local consumption drove the avocado market, with bilateral trade dynamics also playing a crucial role.

- Grape: In Chile, the main price drivers for fresh grapes included strong export demand, particularly from the US, and implementing the Systems Approach protocol, which allowed for new export measures. This led to a 21.23% MoM price increase to USD 1.37/kg in Jul-24. In Peru, prices rose by 4.59% MoM to USD 0.91/kg due to infrastructure improvements, increased acreage, and favorable government measures supporting agricultural exports despite overall shipment declines. In India, lower supply during the off-season and increased demand resulted in an 18.30% MoM price increase to USD 0.84/kg in Jul-24.

- Mango: Mango prices in Mexico, Peru, and Brazil showed different trends in July, with Peru taking the lead in price increases, marking a 13.68% MoM increase. Mexico followed with an almost 10% MoM price increase of fresh mangoes. The main price drivers for fresh mangoes in Mexico included innovative agricultural practices, limited availability of fresh mangoes, and seasonal shifts. In Peru, price influences were tied to weather conditions affecting pollination and disease management, logistic infrastructure improvements, and lack of financial support for farmers. Conversely, export dynamics, exchange rate fluctuations, and shifting focus to domestic markets amid competition in traditional export markets were the key factors impacting mango prices in Brazil, pulling prices down 6.17% MoM.