August 2025 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,531.25/40-foot container, marking a 25.46% month-on-month (MoM) decline and a 50.19% year-on-year (YoY) drop. The decrease was largely attributed to sluggish demand following an earlier wave of frontloading ahead of the initial Jul-25 tariff deadline. Meanwhile, the World Bank’s Fertilizer Index averaged 154.53 points, an 8.05% MoM increase and a 28.41% YoY rise. The overall gain was driven by notable price increases in urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP), which outweighed a slight decline in potassium chloride.

- Coffee: Brazilian Arabica and Robusta prices are expected to rebound in Aug-25 as harvest winds down and weather risk lingers. Similarly, low domestic supply is expected to put upward pressure on Colombian prices. In Vietnam, prices are expected to remain bullish as Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Robusta firms and farmer selling remain cautious.

- Sugar: Quotas and festival demand should keep prices steady to slightly firmer through Aug-25 in India. Sugar prices in Brazil are expected to remain firm as mills balance cash needs with limited offerings.

- Tea: Indian tea prices are forecast to remain bullish in Aug-25 due to a decline in output. Tridge predicts that tea prices in Kenya will remain firm if demand from blending houses and export buyers holds and if auction offerings normalize. Meanwhile, Sri Lankan prices are expected to remain firm if weekly offerings remain limited and international buying interest continues.

- Cocoa: Persistent concerns about West African yields and disease control point towards a bullish price trend in Aug-25.