January 2024 Outlook Report: Nuts

Peanuts: Peanut prices in India declined in Dec-23 due to reduced buying interest and abundant supplies from the Kharif crop, although uncertainty persists about its actual size. Prices are expected to level out early in 2024, as the crop falls short of expectations and the Rabi crop suffers under dry conditions. Brazilian peanut prices held steady in Dec-23 as a shift to peanuts from soybeans, particularly in São Paulo, may lead to a rise in cultivation area for 2023/24. However, this is offset by dry conditions and only a small increase anticipated in production. Chinese peanut prices rebounded early in Jan-24, but are expected to trend sideways as a bumper domestic crop, coupled with weak demand, caps prices.

Almonds: Global almond supplies could fall short of initial expectations as the Spanish and United States (US) crops fail to live up to expectations. This is leading to a faster-than-expected rebalancing of supply and demand. The US crop could fall short of the estimated 2.6 billion pounds (lbs) and is marked by a high rejection rate of almonds for human consumption. Although most importers are still only covering short-term commitments, there has been an uptick in US exports, signaling a possible demand recovery.

Walnuts: Despite resilient import demand for walnuts, a bumper global crop estimated at 1.14 million metric tons (mmt) poses a challenge. In the US, the walnut crop exceeded expectations, supporting prices, but challenges in exports to Turkey and a record crop may limit significant price increases in early 2024. Chile's walnut export season concluded with 98% of the 2023 crop sold, and attention now turns to the 2024 harvest, where water scarcity could influence prices, closely tracking trends in the US market.

Hazelnuts: In the hazelnut market, European prices experienced a modest uptick in Dec-23, mirroring the recent upward trend in Turkish hazelnut prices. European buyers and Turkish sellers of hazelnut continue with a wait-and-see approach, which has led to weak exports from Turkiye in Q1 of the 2023/24 marketing year (MY). Despite the reluctance of buyers and sellers to compromise, prices have trended sideways since Oct-23 and are expected to continue this trend early in 2024.