July 2024 Outlook Report: Fruit

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices jumped 38.60% in Jun-24 to USD 4282.67, rising more than USD 1,000 MoM. This increase results from an early start to the ocean peak season, high global port congestion along with continued disruptions in the Red Sea. The World Bank fertilizer index jumped nearly 10 points to 118.2 in Jun-24, a 8.99% increase, roughly back to its level in Dec-23. The increase resulted from increases on fertilizer prices across the board, especially urea prices.

- Avocado: Spain and Mexico saw surging price trends in Jun-24, driven by increased demand for Mexican avocados on one side and adverse weather effects on Spanish supply on the other. Avocado growers in Jalisco, Mexico expect a 10 to 20% year-over-year (YoY) production increase in 2024 despite drought-related challenges and the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) temporary export ban. On the other hand, drought conditions in Málaga and new plantings in regions like Galicia and Huelva are influencing supply dynamics despite increased avocado cultivation. Lastly, the wholesale price of fresh avocados in Chile declined 4.23% month-over-month (MoM) in Jun-24, continuing a downward trend since early 2024 due to weak demand.

- Grape: Overall stability in wholesale prices of fresh grapes in Chile, Peru, and India prevailed in Jun-24. The US' approval of the Systems Approach for Chilean table grapes, replacing fumigation with methyl bromide, is expected to increase fruit value by 40 to 45%. This will benefit major growing regions like Atacama, Coquimbo, and Valparaíso. Similarly, international trade improvements in Peru, including a protocol with China for air-exported table grapes, are expected to boost Peru's agricultural sector. The high demand for Indian grapes in Europe and the United Kingdom (UK) in early 2024 was driven by a shortage of white seedless grapes. However, the season faced significant challenges due to the Red Sea crisis and shipping delays, leading to market confusion and plummeting prices.

- Mango: In Jun-24, Peru’s and Brazil's wholesale prices of fresh mangoes experienced significant growth, while Mexico maintained a stable trend, with few movements. In Brazil, technological advancements in Goiás are improving mango crop management, sustainability, and productivity, and ABRAFRUTAS (Brazil's Fruit Growers and Exporters Association) is expanding into European markets, mainly the UK. On the other hand, logistical improvements of Chancay Port in Peru will reduce export times to China. Finally, Mexico's mangoes were cleared for US export, addressing labor and security concerns and relieving traders.