July 2025 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,395.91 per 40-foot container in Jun-25, 59.90% higher month-on-month (MoM) but still 20.69% lower year-on-year (YoY), driven by frontloading ahead of expected tariff expirations. Meanwhile, the World Bank’s Fertilizer Index rose to 142.98 points, a 7.34% MoM uptick and 20.96% YoY increase, supported by rising prices in urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium chloride.

- Coffee: Brazilian Arabica and Robusta prices are expected to remain under downward pressure due to continued harvest activity and high market expectations for new crop volumes. In contrast, low domestic supply is expected to put upward pressure on Colombian prices in Jul-25. In Vietnam, prices are expected to remain under downward pressure due to improved production prospects.

- Sugar: Improved crop prospects are expected to keep prices stable in India. Sugar prices in Brazil are expected to remain firm as rising ethanol demand prompts millers to divert a larger share of sugarcane to ethanol production.

- Tea: Indian tea prices are forecast to remain bullish in Jul-25 due to a decline in output. Tridge predicts that tea prices in Kenya will remain low due to heightened supply levels, while Sri Lankan prices are expected to remain stable due to a recovery in production levels.

- Cocoa: Tridge forecasts that the downward trend in cocoa prices could be short-lived with prices recovering in Jul-25 due to the volatility of the market and supply concerns in West Africa.