July 2025 Outlook Report: Fruits

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,395.91 per 40-foot container in Jun-25, 59.90% higher month-on-month (MoM) but still 20.69% lower year-on-year (YoY), driven by frontloading ahead of expected tariff expirations. Meanwhile, the World Bank’s Fertilizer Index rose to 142.98 points, a 7.34% MoM rise and 20.96% YoY increase, supported by rising prices in urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium chloride.

- Avocado: Avocado prices in Jun-25 showed varied trends across key markets. In Mexico, prices surged by 20.18% MoM to USD 3.87 per kilogram (kg), due to adverse weather that reduced the supply of large-sized fruit amid strong United States (US) demand. In Spain, prices climbed 32.64% MoM to USD 4.47/kg, fueled by strong end-of-season demand for high-quality local avocados, which commanded a premium despite a flood of Peruvian imports into Europe. Meanwhile, Chilean prices remained stable MoM at USD 2.53/kg, as a robust domestic market successfully balanced supply and demand from a bumper crop, even as prices were down 34.11% YoY.

- Grape: In Jun-25, fresh grape prices varied significantly among major Southern Hemisphere exporters, reflecting intense competition and shifting market dynamics. In Chile, prices dipped 4.79% MoM to USD 1.39/kg as the market grappled with saturation and intense competition from Peru, part of a broader strategic shift away from traditional grape varieties. Conversely, Peru saw prices jump 45.94% MoM to USD 1.08/kg due to a combination of strong demand and insufficient supply. Similarly, South Africa experienced a price surge of 41.82% MoM to USD 2.95/kg, driven by strong demand from North America as the country works to diversify its export markets amid fierce competition from its South American rivals.

- Mango: In Peru, mango prices experienced a significant monthly rebound, skyrocketing by 60.41% MoM in Jun-25 to USD 0.77/kg. However, this surge did little to offset the YoY price suppression, with prices remaining 59.47% lower than the previous year due to an enormous supply overhang. While a post-season uptick in demand fueled the monthly price hike, the sheer volume from this bumper crop was the dominant factor, keeping overall prices heavily subdued compared to the prior year.