July 2025 Outlook Report: Grains

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,395.91 per 40-foot container in Jun-25, 59.90% higher month-on-month (MoM) but still 20.69% lower year-on-year (YoY), driven by frontloading ahead of expected tariff expirations. Meanwhile, the World Bank’s Fertilizer Index rose to 142.98 points, a 7.34% MoM rise and 20.96% YoY increase, supported by rising prices in urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium chloride. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Cereal Price Index averaged 107.4 points, reflecting a 1.47% MoM decline and a 6.77% YoY drop. The monthly drop was driven by falling prices for maize, sorghum, barley, and rice, which more than offset a modest increase in wheat prices.

- Wheat: Australian wheat export prices may rebound moderately due to weather risks but will likely stay below last year’s levels. Russian prices face downward pressure from rising supply and zero-duty exports, while United States (US) Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat prices are expected to remain stable or relatively low, supported by good harvest progress despite lower production forecasts.

- Maize: US corn prices may face continued downward pressure in the near term, supported by favorable weather and strong export competition from Brazil and Argentina. Brazil’s maize export prices are also expected to remain weak due to ample domestic supply, logistical challenges, and global competition. Similarly, Argentina’s maize prices may stay under pressure amid high production, strong regional competition, and newly reinstated export taxes.

- Rice: India’s rice prices are expected to remain bearish due to high stocks and strong production. Thai prices are likely to stay stable or subdued amid weak global demand and competition. Vietnam’s prices are expected to remain lower despite focusing on premium exports, as global supply and competition weigh on the market.