July 2025 Outlook Report: Vegetables

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,395.91 per 40-foot container in Jun-25, 59.90% higher month-on-month (MoM) but still 20.69% lower year-on-year (YoY), driven by frontloading ahead of expected tariff expirations. Meanwhile, the World Bank’s Fertilizer Index rose to 142.98 points, a 7.34% MoM rise and 20.96% YoY increase, supported by rising prices in urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium chloride.

- Potato: In France, the wholesale potato price was stable MoM at USD 0.42 per kilogram (kg), though it remains 36.36% lower YoY due to a well-supplied market despite strong export demand. In Pakistan, prices soared by 31.25% MoM to USD 0.21/kg, while still down 19.23% YoY as growers face declining export volumes and a smaller harvested area. Meanwhile, prices in Egypt rose 9.09% MoM to USD 0.12/kg, with a significant 58.62% YoY decrease, as a surge in production has boosted export volumes by approximately 25% and allowed for highly competitive global pricing.

- Tomato: Reflecting its position as the primary supplier to the United States (US), Mexico's tomato price is notably high at USD 1.54/kg, setting a critical baseline ahead of a potential 20.91% US tariff in Jul-25 that threatens to trigger significant volatility. In the Mediterranean region, Morocco's price of USD 0.37/kg underscores its competitive advantage, enabling continued expansion into the European Union (EU) and United Kingdom (UK). This leaves Spain caught in a competitive squeeze at USD 0.43/kg as growers struggle to balance production costs against intense downward pressure from cheaper imports.

- Onion: In India, wholesale onion prices rose by 14.28% MoM to USD 0.16/kg, driven by a spike in demand, which absorbed a supply glut from a recent bumper harvest. Mexican onion prices skyrocketed 44.82% MoM to USD 0.42/kg due to a combination of constrained local supply and strong, rising prices in its primary export market, the US. In Egypt, prices soared 41.66% MoM to USD 0.17/kg as the lifting of a previous export ban resulted in strong international demand, fueled by poor harvests in other major producing regions like India and Europe.