March 2025 Outlook Report: Meat

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,129.10 per 40-foot container in Feb-25, marking a 20.69% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 7.70% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. This decline is attributed to the post-Lunar New Year (LNY) slowdown. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Meat Price Index averaged 117.96 points in Feb-25, reflecting a marginal 0.07% MoM decline but a 4.82% YoY increase. The slight monthly drop was driven by lower poultry and pork prices, which offset gains in lamb and beef prices.

- Beef: United States (US) beef export prices are expected to remain high in Mar-25 due to supply constraints and strong global demand, though trade policies may impact market dynamics. Potential tariff changes on imports from Mexico and Canada could raise domestic prices while reducing US competitiveness in key export markets. Brazil and Australia are also expected to see elevated beef prices, driven by strong global demand. Similarly, European Union (EU) beef prices are anticipated to remain bullish due to strong domestic and export demand, though competition from Mercosur imports and trade policy shifts could influence future trends.

- Poultry: US poultry export prices are expected to stay high in Mar-25, driven by stable supply-demand dynamics. Brazilian chicken export prices will likely remain stable, with higher exportable supplies limiting price increases, though strong demand from key importers may provide support. EU poultry prices are also expected to stay relatively stable, supported by steady domestic demand.

- Pork: US pork export prices are expected to remain stable in Mar-25, supported by strong demand from Central America, though potential tariff-related trade barriers could pose complications. Brazil’s pork export prices are likely to stay elevated, driven by strong global demand and a diversified export base. Meanwhile, EU pork prices are expected to remain low due to a supply surplus caused by trade restrictions and increased production.

- Lamb: New Zealand’s lamb export prices are expected to remain high in Mar-25 due to tight supply concerns. In contrast, Australia’s lamb export prices are projected to decline as increased slaughter rates and higher supply put downward pressure on the market.