May 2025 Outlook Report: Oils

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,045.93 per 40-foot container in Apr-25, marking a 6.87% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 15.61% year-on-year (YoY) decrease, primarily driven by the United States (US)–China trade tensions. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 129.25 points, marking a 0.66% MoM increase, driven by higher prices for diammonium phosphate (DAP) and potassium chloride, which more than offset the decline in urea prices. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 158.0 points, reflecting a 2.35% MoM decrease, driven by a significant drop in palm oil prices, outpacing increases in soybean and rapeseed oil.

- Soybean Oil: US soybean prices are expected to remain firm in May-25 due to heightened demand. Similarly, strong market activity is expected to keep Argentinian prices elevated.

- Palm Oil: As production gains continue to accelerate in May-25, Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to remain on a downward trend.

- Sunflower Oil: In Ukraine and Russia, restricted domestic supply due to strong export demand is set to sustain the ongoing bullish trend, while limited stocks are expected to keep prices in the European Union (EU) high.