November 2024 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,521.60 per 40-foot container in Oct-24, a significant 27.19% month-on-month (MoM) decrease. The drop was primarily due to an early end to the typical peak shipping season. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index rose to an average of 123.48 points in Oct-24, a 4.01% MoM increase. This rise was driven by an increase in urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices, which offset the decline in potassium chloride.

- Coffee: Brazilian Arabica prices are forecast to increase due to limited supply, while Robusta prices are expected to trend downward owing to improved rainfall boosting production. Low domestic supply is expected to put upward pressure on Colombian prices in Nov-24. Vietnamese coffee prices are predicted to decrease due to slow harvesting activity.

- Sugar: Improved crop prospects are expected to keep prices stable in India. Sugar prices in Brazil are set to increase due to ongoing supply challenges.

- Tea: Indian tea prices are expected to remain elevated in Nov-24 due to supply constraints. Tridge predicts that tea prices in Kenya will rise due to the removal of the minimum price requirement at the Mombasa Tea Auction, while Sri Lankan prices are expected to trade down due to elevated production levels.

- Cocoa: Tridge forecasts that cocoa prices will remain elevated in Nov-24. This bullish trend will likely persist as supply challenges in West Africa remain unresolved.