November 2024 Outlook Report: Fruit

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,521.60 per 40-foot container in Oct-24, a significant 27.19% month-on-month (MoM) decrease. The drop was primarily due to an early end to the typical peak shipping season. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index rose to an average of 123.48 points in Oct-24, a 4.01% MoM increase. This rise was driven by an increase in urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices, which offset the decline in potassium chloride.

- Avocado: Despite a recent price drop, Mexican avocados remain more expensive year-on-year (YoY), with subdued European demand expected to lower prices further. Spain's avocado prices have plummeted due to increased supply and the devastating impact of severe weather on agriculture, with further declines anticipated. In Chile, despite climate challenges, avocado production is rising. This is driven by improved weather and water availability, leading to increased exports and competitive pricing pressures in Europe.

- Grape: Despite a slight reduction in overall export volumes in Peru due to earlier weather disruptions, the grape supply has stabilized, leading to a significant price drop due to increased supply and delayed European demand. Peru's focus on the European market is expected to continue, with prices likely declining further as supply remains abundant. South Africa's grape industry is recovering from a challenging 2024 season marked by adverse weather, with improved conditions promising a better 2025 harvest. Despite a recent price decline due to increased supply, global demand, particularly from Europe, is expected to drive prices up in the coming months as supply from other southern hemisphere countries remains limited.

- Mango: Although high inflation has affected fruit and vegetable prices in Mexico, mango prices have remained relatively stable, with a slight increase due to balanced supply and demand as the season ends. In Peru, a significant increase in mango exports to the United States (US) is anticipated, yet prices have dropped sharply due to abundant supply, with expectations of stabilization at lower levels. Conversely, Brazil faces challenges with surplus supply and reduced demand from the US, leading to record-low prices. The situation is exacerbated by logistical issues and low external demand, with growers seeking alternative markets to mitigate price pressures.