November Outlook: Fruit and Veg

- The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) has revised its 2023 apple production forecast, predicting a 3.3% decrease for the European Union (EU). The EU and Italy are expected to experience a decline in fresh apple exports due to adverse weather. India's domestic demand is expected to be met by imports due to insufficient domestic supply, while China is diversifying its imports. The United States (US) is forecast to produce 9.9 billion pounds of fresh apples, with markets tight and additional supplies from states like Washington and Michigan. Weather conditions, consumer preferences, and international trade agreements influenced apple production and pricing in October and will impact November as well.
- Ecuador and the US showed a stable price trend for fresh bananas in October, balancing domestic supply and international demand, especially in Ecuador’s case. A particular stress factor on the market is the looming decision for the agreed prices in 2024, forcing the government to interfere. On the other hand, European countries witnessed lower prices in October, driven by increased import volume from African countries. China’s growing demand and improved logistics with Vietnam will influence price and trade trends in the upcoming period.
- China and Türkiye’s fresh bell pepper prices are improving, driven by increased demand, while on the other side, Spain's prices are fluctuating in an unstable trend, expected to continue even in Nov-23. Finally, Peru has been affected by adverse weather, limiting available volumes for both domestic and export markets.
- Thailand's durian trading results are satisfactory despite Vietnam gaining more ground in the Chinese market this year. Still, prices are increasing in Thailand and Taiwan, mainly due to limited quantities of durian. China's long period of stable prices is expected to be shaken in November, driven by increased demand and shrinking durian volumes.
- In Mexico, avocado prices are slightly rising as the harvest shortens due to dry conditions and increased exports. South Africa's avocado prices have rebounded, aided by Chinese market access. In Chile, prices spiked when Peruvian avocados were scarce and have since decreased due to more local supply and export delays. In November, prices are expected to fluctuate in response to local demand and export patterns.
- Mango prices are moving in different directions in Brazil and Spain. In Brazil, Tommy Atkins mango prices rose due to lower volumes but are now dropping as the harvest expands. In Spain, Tommy Atkins mango prices spiked as the season concluded, driven by drought-related harvest reductions. With growing European mango consumption, imports, especially from Peru, are stepping in. The price trends are expected to continue in November.
- The onion market has seen contrasting trends in various regions. In Mexico, red onion prices have been on the rise since September due to both a global supply shortage and economic inflation. Meanwhile, in the US, prices registered a considerable reduction after soaring to record highs. Delayed harvests, lower Peruvian supply, and high customer demand influenced this surge. Peruvian red onion prices have also declined since reaching historic highs, with various factors affecting the market. The situation in South Africa involves fluctuating yellow onion prices due to past oversupply, and despite a recent drop, prices remain above typical rates. Tridge's November outlooks suggest price trends will likely continue in these regions, influenced by factors like demand, supply, and economic dynamics.