October 2024 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices dropped by 8% month-on-month (MoM) in Sep-24, averaging USD 4,836.65 per 40-foot container. This decline is largely attributed to the closing of the peak season for shipments to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index dropped by 1.08% MoM, reaching 118.72 points. The decrease was primarily driven by a 1.46% MoM drop in urea prices and a 2.42% MoM decline in potassium chloride prices, which more than offset the 1.60% MoM increase in diammonium phosphate (DAP) rates.

- Coffee: Brazilian coffee prices are forecast to increase due to ongoing weather concerns. Low domestic supply is expected to put upward pressure on Colombian prices in October. Vietnamese coffee prices are predicted to increase due to potential weather concerns, specifically related to the El Niño phenomenon.

- Sugar: Improved crop prospects are expected to keep prices stable in India. Sugar prices in Brazil are set to decrease due to ongoing production challenges.

- Tea: Indian tea prices are expected to remain elevated in October due to a decline in tea production. Tridge predicts that tea prices in Kenya will rise due to the removal of the minimum price requirement at the Mombasa Tea Auction, while Sri Lankan prices are expected to trade down due to elevated production levels.

- Cocoa: Tridge forecasts that cocoa prices will remain elevated in October. This bullish trend will likely persist as supply challenges in West Africa remain unresolved.