A severe global rice shortage is expected in 2023, the most significant in nearly two decades, impacting over 3.5 billion people, especially the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for 90% of rice consumption. This shortage is attributed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, extreme weather conditions in rice-producing countries like China and Pakistan, and droughts in major European rice-growing countries. The deficit is projected to be 8.7 million tonnes for the 2022/2023 season, the largest since 2003/2004. Despite these challenges, Fitch Solutions anticipates a return to market balance by 2023/2024, although rice prices may remain high and could see a decrease of almost 10% in 2024.