An impending El Niño foreshadows a new shake-up for global food production

게시됨 2023년 4월 20일

Tridge 요약

The US Climate Prediction Center has forecasted a 62% chance of an El Niño climate event occurring between May and July, with an 80% chance from July to September, marking a significant shift from the recent three years of La Niña. El Niño, known for bringing heavier rainfall in some areas, could potentially improve food production in regions that have suffered drought due to La Niña, such as parts of the US and South America. However, it could also lead to challenges in palm oil production in Southeast Asia and cocoa production in West Africa due to drier conditions. This could have significant impacts on global agricultural production, including the potential for reduced palm oil production in 2024 due to the lag in production and increased rainfall in Australia, which could affect wheat planting.

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원본 콘텐츠

Chances of an El Niño global climate event occurring this year have grown swiftly, potentially impacting food production from the Americas to Africa and southern Asia. The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) currently gives El Niño a 62% chance of developing between May and July this year. For the period from July to September, there is an 80% chance of El Niño setting in — a big jump from the 56% probability that the CPC predicted last month. An El Niño event would follow a rare, three consecutive years of La Niña, which has many of the opposite effects to El Niño on agricultural crop growing conditions. Currently, the CPC says the globe’s climate is in a period of ENSO Neutral, meaning an absence of either La Niña or El Niño. El Niño affects food production differently around the world. In the US, previous El Niño years have been linked with some of the most successful US corn and soybean crops, as favorable summer growing conditions prevailed in the Corn Belt. In 2015, when the ...

출처: Gro-intelligence