Analyst: Geopolitics turns the game in Brazilian agribusiness

Published 2025년 11월 27일

Tridge summary

The latest market movements have made it clear that agribusiness quotes are reacting much more to geopolitics than to factors such as weather, crop yield, or logistics. According to agribusiness strategist Ale Delara, decisions made in the United States and China are guiding prices in Brazil with intensity and speed.

Original content

The price per thousand pounds of cattle was one of the first signs of this change. Prices retreated after diplomatic noise coming from China, the main buyer of Brazilian beef. Shortly after, the direction reversed when the United States announced the withdrawal of tariffs, boosting the value of the price per thousand pounds again. In the coffee market, the movement was even more abrupt. Quotes melted on ICE NY in anticipation of greater entry of Brazilian product into the international market, a scenario fueled by the political and commercial context between the major powers. Soybeans also reacted quickly. Chinese purchases exceeded three million tons, enough to change the course of quotes in Chicago and Brazil, showing the weight of Beijing's decisions in the global supply balance. For Ale Delara, the simultaneity of these movements reveals that external factors are guiding prices before any physical change in ...
Source: Agrolink

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