Canada: Alarm sounded on canola exports

Canada’s canola exports will fall way short of Agriculture Canada’s forecast and that means increased carryout and pressure on prices, says an analyst. Agriculture Canada is forecasting 9.3 million tonnes of exports in 2022-23. That is not the number that PI Financial Corp. canola analyst Ken Ball is hearing when he speaks to commercial traders. “Some of them are as low as six (million tonnes), some are seven to 7.5,” he said. The reason for their pessimism is Australia’s monster crop. Farmers Down Under harvested a record 7.3 million tonnes of the oilseed, according to the Australian government’s latest estimate published on Dec. 6. “Australian exports could hit six million tonnes this year,” said Ball. “Believe it or not, Australian exports might almost equal Canadian exports this year for the first time in history.” ProMarket Wire analyst Errol Anderson agreed with the premise that Canada’s sales will likely be disappointing in the second half of the marketing campaign. “I ...