China’s soybean imports expected to slow down and eventually decline through 2030

게시됨 2023년 1월 9일

Tridge 요약

The Chinese government is initiating a soymeal reduction campaign to decrease reliance on imported soybeans, with the aim of enhancing food security and position in international diplomacy. This move is part of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which addresses supply chain security risks associated with grain and oilseed imports. In response, China's feed mills are seeking alternative protein sources and improving feed conversion ratios to decrease feed consumption. Meanwhile, the global soybean supply chain is expected to undergo significant changes due to this campaign, impacting various stakeholders such as growers, traders, and feed mills. Additionally, there is potential for increased importation of soymeal from the Americas, where soy oil is being processed for biofuel, which could lead to lower soymeal prices in the international market.

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원본 콘텐츠

“The inclusion rate of soymeal in feed rations is projected to drop, as the Chinese government is launching a soymeal reduction campaign aimed at lowering the dependence on imported soybeans to ensure food security,” reported Lief Chiang, senior analyst, grains and oilseeds, Rabobank. The Chinese government’s 14th Five-Year Plan highlighted supply chain security risks related to grain and oilseed imports. Amid geopolitical complications, soybean imports became a focal point in trade between the US and China. The government hopes that reducing its reliance on soybean imports will help it take a more proactive position in bilateral diplomacy. Though, when needed, and only as a short-term measure, the analysts said the Chinese government might encourage soybean imports or conduct stock buying to replenish state reserves. In a low-soymeal scenario, China would only need to import 87m metric tons in 2025 and 84m metric tons in 2030, and the inclusion rate of soymeal in feed rations ...

출처: UKfeednavigator