Coffee harvest 2026/27 is expected to grow by 10%

Coffee production in Brazil is heading for a new recovery cycle in 2026/27, with an expected growth of 10.1% over the previous season. The increase, estimated by Itaú BBA, will be driven mainly by arabica coffee, whose production could reach 44.8 million bags — an 18% jump from the 2025/26 crop. Despite below-average rainfall recorded in 2025, milder temperatures during the pre-flowering period contributed to a good flower set, which supports the optimistic projection. In the case of robusta coffee, although the estimate is for a slight decline (-2%), production remains robust in the states of Espírito Santo and Bahia, despite some alerts about excess rainfall and phytosanitary risk. The Itaú BBA report highlights that the climate was not the only favorable factor. The exchange ratio between coffee and fertilizers remained positive throughout 2025, encouraging investments in crop management. This environment favored the formation of a solid base for the next production cycle, ...