Coffee: understand the recent impacts of El Niño in Brazil

• El Niño impacted coffee-producing regions in Brazil in the fourth quarter of 2023, causing unprecedented temperatures and irregular rainfall, increasing uncertainty regarding production of the 24/25 harvest. • In southern Minas Gerais, record temperatures persisted even as El Niño subsided in early 2024, presenting continued challenges for coffee cultivation. Still, water reserves helped maintain average levels at the end of the year. • The Cerrado faced low rainfall and high temperatures in 2023. As 2024 began, optimism waned as accumulated rainfall levels were reported to be 30% below normal, setting a less optimistic tone for the next harvest cycle . • Espírito Santo, strongly impacted by El Niño, faced high temperatures and minimal rainfall records until the end of 2023. Concerns for 2024 are centered on low levels of rainfall, which could harm the 24/25 conilon harvest, despite a slight improvement in early 2024. The coffee market faced climate anomalies in the last quarter ...