Czarnikow raises the global sugar surplus forecast for 2024/25 season

Published 2024년 10월 30일

Tridge summary

Global sugar consumption for the 2024/25 season is expected to reach 180 million tonnes, with Brazil's Center-South region seeing an 8% increase in sugar production in early October 2024. However, a historic drought and wildfires in Brazil are anticipated to cause a six-month production gap, while India's focus on ethanol production limits its sugar exports. These factors may tighten global sugar supplies and drive up prices, as evidenced by the rise in raw and white sugar futures on October 30, 2024.

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Original content

Global consumption in the 2024/25 season is forecast at 180 million tonnes, up 0.3 million tonnes from last month's forecast. Consumption in the previous season was estimated at 177.6 million tonnes. According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Association (UNICA), sugar production in Brazil's key growing region of Center-South reached 2.44 million tonnes in the first half of October 2024, up 8% from the same period in 2023. Sugarcane crushing in the period increased by 2.75% to 33.83 million tonnes. According to a survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights, both sugar and cane production were higher than market expectations of 2.37 million tonnes for sugar and 33.51 million tonnes for cane, respectively. Brazil is set for its longest sugar-growing gap in decades, as a historic drought and widespread wildfires this year slow the development of the 2025 crop. Mills are expected to end sugar production early in late October and not resume until mid-April or even May next year. That would ...

Source: Vinanet