The future of the Brazilian arabica coffee crop for 2026/27 is, at this moment, in the hands of the weather. The initial stage of development of the crops requires close attention, especially among rural producers in São Paulo and Southern Minas Gerais, key regions for national production. A recent survey by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) confirmed the sector's expectation: rainfall is vital. Although the beginning of the season was marked by quite significant flowering, as observed in the main producing areas in the first half of the month, the lack of heavy rainfall in recent days has raised a red flag. The rain is crucial to ensure the "setting" and initial development of the fruits, known as "chumbinhos". Without adequate moisture, there is a risk of these fruits falling, seriously compromising the productive potential of the harvest. Despite this, researchers indicate that the climatic conditions of October, with satisfactory humidity and milder ...