Brazil: French bread prices increase by 2.6% in 2023, and prospects for 2024 are varied

The average retail value of "French bread" increased by 2.6% throughout 2023 compared to the previous year, having a significant impact on the inflationary context. Contrary to the scenario of a significant increase of 13% in 2022, driven by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, important wheat exporters, the year 2023 was marked by a stabilization in prices, as highlighted by the Agricultural Conjuncture Bulletin. The report prepared by the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), of the State Secretariat for Agriculture and Supply (Seab), highlights that the abundant supply of wheat in Brazil at the beginning of 2023, resulting from a record harvest in 2022, contributed to the price containment. Furthermore, the dollar exchange rate, remaining at levels lower than those of 2022 for most of the year, also had a positive influence. However, the prospects for 2024 are different. The harvest harvested in 2023 was damaged by rain, limiting the supply to mills, which, in turn, is ...