Global pine nut production is expected to decrease by nearly 30%, with prices reaching a new high.

Recent data from INC indicates that global shelled pine nut production is expected to decline by 28% in the 2025/26 season, primarily due to a 44% drop in Chinese production. In contrast, production in the Mediterranean region is expected to increase by 16%, driven by Turkey. Shelled pine nut production is projected to decrease by 18% from 44,840 tons in the 2024/25 season to 36,702 tons in the 2025/26 season. Total shelled pine nut supply will decrease by 18% to 164,600 tons, while total pine kernel supply will drop by 10% to 46,559 tons. The China Food and Agricultural Products Import and Export Association noted that the contraction in production, particularly in China, has driven up raw material prices. Although Russian production is expected to increase by 20% compared to last year, unfavorable weather conditions have caused early pine cone shedding in many areas, forcing initial estimates to be revised downward. However, a bumper harvest is expected next year. Unlike most Mediterranean countries, Turkey's production has increased significantly. Italy faced extreme heat from late August to early September, affecting the development of pine cones on trees and delaying the harvest until October. Spain, on the other hand, lost approximately 16,000 hectares of pine forests to wildfires, severely impacting production. The reduction in production has driven market prices to new highs.