Hedgepoint updates global grain market

게시됨 2024년 12월 26일

Tridge 요약

The article provides an update on the agricultural market, focusing on the changes in futures contracts as reported in the COT reports and the implications of the WASDE report on various crops. It highlights a rise in U.S. corn exports and domestic consumption, leading to lower ending stocks, despite slow sales. Brazil's corn exports are projected to decrease due to reduced Chinese imports. The article also forecasts a year of record harvests in key agricultural regions, including the U.S., South America, and Russia, which could lead to lower global prices, though factors like poor European harvests, geopolitical tensions, and trade policies could introduce uncertainties. Additionally, it notes an shift in funds' net corn positions to positive, boosting prices, and a slight reduction in Russian wheat exports balanced by an increase in Ukrainian exports.

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원본 콘텐츠

Price Update The following analysis compares the closing of futures contracts between the last two COT reports. USA The WASDE report indicated an increase in corn exports (from 59.06 to 62.87 Mt) and domestic consumption (from 321.7 to 322.98 Mt), resulting in lower ending stocks (from 49.23 to 44.15 Mt). “Despite this, export sales figures were disappointing, with 947 thousand tons versus 1.42 Mt a year earlier, and cumulative exports reaching 56% of the WASDE estimate. Still, U.S. corn exports were up 31% year-over-year,” notes Ignacio Espinola, senior grains analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets. Brazil Brazil exported 38 Mt of corn in 2024, down from 48.3 Mt in 2023, due to a drop in imports from China (from 14.1 to 2.1 Mt). Good weather conditions should favor the South American harvest in the coming weeks. China Corn imports from China are forecast at 14 Mt, below the average of 21.3 Mt, due to the economic slowdown and the housing crisis. The USDA projects a record local ...

출처: NoticiasAgricolas