India’s Costly Palm Oil Drives Sharp Shift Toward Soybean Imports

to jump by around 40 per cent to 4.7-4.9 million tonnes in OY25, driven by persistently high palm oil prices through most of the year and a temporary supply boost after Argentina suspended export duties. Meanwhile, India’s total edible oil imports are expected to fall only slightly to 15.5 million tonnes, keeping the country’s import dependency high at around 55 per cent. “While CPO prices are likely to soften in 2026 with an increase in the output, the increase in biofuel blending in Indonesia might affect the demand-supply balance in the later part of 2H26, presenting an upside risk,” said Khushbu Lakhotia, Director, Corporate Ratings, Ind-Ra. She added that soybean oil prices have faced downward pressure due to Argentina’s duty suspension and weak US shipments to China, though China’s renewed buying after a tariff cut by the US could support prices. Palm oil imports are set to fall to around 8 million tonnes in OY25, down from 9 million tonnes in OY24, as its traditional price ...