Iran in 2026: Why grain suppliers will be reshuffled and where Black Sea can win

most vital mission. Against the global sanctions, Iran attempts to achieve self-sufficiency in grain production (wheat, barley, corn and rice). However, droughts for the past six years make it impossible to provide the farmers with water. Iran’s wheat import pattern is special: even when domestic wheat covers food needs, imports can rise to support flour exports, because Iran restricts the use of domestically produced wheat for flour production and then export to neighbors. That results in wheat imports even if national wheat crop looks comfortable. Base-case for 2026: russia and Kazakhstan remain the core wheat suppliers because they can execute via Caspian routes and through EAEU-linked trade formats. Unlike wheat, corn in Iran is deeply limited by water deficit and feed demand. That keeps Iran among the top importers and makes corn the most sensitive to general economic conditions. Ukraine used to be a major corn supplier before 2022. By 2026 exports are banned officially, and ...